Virginia

SD 24 is the most Democratic leaning in the state currently held by a Republican. The district is home to York, Poquoson, Williamsburg, and a portion of Newport News, and went for Kamala Harris by just over 8 points in 2024. When the seat comes up in 2027, Democrats will be narrowly favored to flip it, and will likely make gains in the region in the State House elections this year

HD 34 sits within Rockingham County, containing the independent city of Harrisonburg (home to James Madison University), Elkton, Massanutten, Massanetta Springs, and Linville. Trump won the district by a suspicious 6.66 points, with Harris's win of Harrisonburg standing out. The district likely starts out as a tossup for this fall, but gun to my head, it will probably narrowly stay in the Republican column

HD 66 contains parts of Spotsylvania and Caroline counties to the south of the DC metro. Trump won the seat by just over 2 points in 2024, doing best outside of the major population centers (but not terribly within them). This is another seat that is likely a pure tossup, but I would rate as Leans Republican if I had to assign a rating

My ideal iteration of SD 11 in the Charlottesville area would require no country splits, containing all of the independent city of Charlottesville (home to the University of Virginia), and the counties of Albermarle, Buckingham, Fluvanna, and Nelson. Harris would have carried the seat by just shy of 29 points, almost exclusively thanks to Albemarle and Charlottesville, albeit with pockets of Democratic strength in Lake Monitcello and Nellysford