Alabama

Conecuh County is a McCain-Obama County that Trump has so far won twice. It sits just to the south of the reliably Democratic Black Belt counties of the state, and voted for Trump in 2020 by 7 points. I would expect Trump to win the county again, but there is precedent for Biden winning it this go around, especially after the narrow win of the county's Democratic sheriff

Russell County sits along the Georgia border, and is becoming one of the state's more competitive counties due to losing Black population and suburbanization of neighboring Columbus GA. Biden won it by 6.5 points in 2020, but several Republicans carried it in 2022