Florida

Leon County is home to Florida's state capital (Tallahassee), and one of the members of my PhD cohort. It's among the bluest in the state, with Biden having won it by over 28 points. Trump did best in the more rural, white areas on the outskirts of the county

Democrats were in for a shock with Miami-Dade County in 2020, as the area swung hard to the right, and dropped Biden to just over a 7 point win vs. Clinton's 20+. The African American and white parts of town punched more Democratic, and Hispanic areas more Republican. The next year would see massive Republican wins here, foreshadowing the uncertainty coming for 2024

Monroe County, Florida is home to Key West and Key Largo, and like much of the state, it is agonizingly competitive at times. The last time that it voted for a Democrat Presidentially was in 2012. Obama won the county by 158 votes, mainly thanks to the deep blue of Key West

Sarasota County FL is the bluest in the southwest of the state. Still, Trump won it by double digits. The bluest precincts were in the Sarasota proper, along with a single blue precinct in Venice

FL-07 contains all of Seminole County and part of Volusia county along the Atlantic Coast. In 2020, this was a seat that Trump won by around 5.5 points, losing the Seminole portion of the seat. Seminole recently has been one of the few relatively bright spots in the state for Democrats, so it will be interesting to see what dynamics unfold here

Florida's HD 22 contains half of Gainesville in Alachua County, and a decent portion of coastal Levy County. In 2020, Trump won the seat by just over a point, primarily thanks to Levy County. Florida Democrats have proved their incompetance on multiple occasions, but given the trends favoring Democrats in north Florida, Democrats have a good shot at winning the seat in 2024 if they can get their act together