California

California's 21st district is home to chronic under-performer Jim Costa, and takes in portions of Fresno and Tulare counties. While he won re-election by 8 points, this is also a district that Biden won by over 20, although the Central Valley does tend to be more Republican downballot

Orange County used to be "where Republicans go to die", in the words of Ronald Reagan. Now, Republicans are lucky to win the county by a few points. They did get lucky Congressionally in 2022, and won Orange by 2 points, mainly thanks to the strong performances by Young Kim and Michelle Steel

Sacramento County is home to California's state capital, and votes heavily Democratic. Despite Newsom's underperformance, Democratic Congressional margins hovered around their Presidential baseline at a 21-point composite win