Oklahoma

Oklahoma County was the closest county in the state in 2020, and will likely also be in 2024. Trump won it by just over a point in 2020, and Harris is favored to win it by a comparably narrow margin this fall. The area is growing quickly, and is home to the aptly-named Oklahoma City

In 2022, Cherokee County flipped Republican gubernatorially, but Republicans were still down a lot of ground from federal races. Talequah, which normally has one blue precinct, and its surrounding area turned a bright shade of blue, holding Stitt to just over a 1-point win margin