West Virginia

Legislative

In the once strongly Democratic stronghold, West Virginia Democrats are down to 3 seats in the state Senate. They still control both of the Huntington-area seats (each district has 2 seats), and one of the Morgantown seats. They initially had 4 after the 2022 elections, but one Charleston-area Democrat switched his party affiliation to Republican. CNalysis originally had Democrats favored to hold 6 seats after 2022, which signifies that their era of overperformances is coming to an end

Senatorial

Greenbrier County is home to Lewisburg, and sits along the Virginia border. Despite the county going for Trump by double digits, Democratic US Senator Joe Manchin won it by over 5 points. His margins in and around Lewisburg and White Sulphur Springs helped to secure the county for him

Kanawha County contains Charleston, the state's capital, and is one of the bluest (in relativity) of the whole state. In his narrow 2018 win, Joe Manchin swept the county by 27 points. He won due to his strength in the denser areas along the Kanawha River, and in the coal country part of the county in the south

McDowell County used to be around 100k people, but since then, the population has dropped to a mere 20% of that. Despite past Democratic margins being huge here, Manchin only won it by 24 votes in 2018, mainly thanks to the Welch and Northfork areas delivering large margins in his favor

Mingo County used to be one of the most Democratic of West Virginia's coal-producing counties, but has since fallen off hard. Joe Manchin, despite his narrow win in 2018, lost the county by over 13 points. He did well in the city of Williamson (which has depopulated significantly over the years), but pretty poorly in the rest of the county

Presidential

Jefferson County last went for a Democratic President in 2008, when Barack Obama carried it. Now, the county has a consistent Republican lean, but is still one of the most Democratic counties in the state. Trump won it by just short of 11 points, with Biden doing best around the main cities of Shepherdstown and Charles Town, as well as the site of John Brown's attack of Harper's Ferry

One of the best opportunities for Biden to flip a county in 2024 is in Monongalia WV. In 2020, he only lost the county (which is home to WVU) by just over a point to Trump, while other statewide Democrats relatively uniformly carried it. The northern part of the state has seen the political balance of power shift its way with is comparative lack of population loss vs the south, and Monongalia's growth will likely cause it to flip

Other Maps

Fayette County is home to the newest National Park in the US: New River Gorge. The county used to be overwhelmingly Democratic, as were all of the others in Coal Country. Since the early 2000s, Democratic strength has plummeted here, but 2018 marked something of a last hurrah for Democrats, who won the county in the US Senate, US House, and State Senate races by an average of 7 points. Democratic strength was concentrated in the northwest end of the county, and around the city of Oak Hill