Virginia
Presidential
Back when James Madison represented VA-05, it was still a mainly Central VA-based seat. Currently, its major population centers are around Fredericksburg and Charlottesville, and it would have voted for Biden by around 2.5 points, with his strength coming primarily from those population centers
Virginia Beach is the largest of Virginia's independent cities, and has long voted Republican. Joe Biden broke that streak in 2020, and carried the county by 5.5 points. African Americans and newly-defected suburban whites helped secure this win. 2023 and 2024 are likely to see some hot races, given that the city is key to Virginia Dems retaking the state government, and will likely play a role in Democrats retaking the US House of Representatives
The Charlottesville area is a reliably blue region presently, but it didn't used to be that way. Back in 2004, John Kerry only won it by about 3.5 points. He carried Charlottesville, Albermarle, and Nelson Counties, and he lost Buckingham, Fluvanna, and Greene. Democrats have lost ground in the outer counties of the area, but gained significantly in Albemarle, and typically win this set of counties by double digits
Nelson County is a big county in the mountains for skiing, and used to be much more competitive. Despite having no incorporated municipalities, Barack Obama won it by almost 3 points. He won the notable communities of Nellysford and Lovingston (the de-facto county seat), but lost Monticello in the more Shenandoah-conservative-dominant west
Frederick County and the independent city of Winchester have long been a reliable conservative voting bloc for Republicans. Despite Winchester's flip to the left in recent years, Trump won the duo by about 20 points in 2020. A future Democratic win of the Greater Frederick region would likely see Frederick's eastern border go totally blue
The old VA-10 was originally drawn as a Republican gerrymander, but first backfired when Hillary Clinton won it in 2016. Biden would come to win it by almost 20 points in 2020, carrying the eastern end of the district with DC suburbs handily
SD 31 was a must win for Virginia Democrats in 2023. This district has some of the bluest area of Loudoun County, some rural areas, and a portion of Farquier County. Democrats won the seat by about 5 points, significantly underperforming Biden's 2020 double-digit margins
SD 4 is the sole competitive senate district in the western part of the state, with Trump only having won it by 225 votes in 2020. The district takes in Roanoke City, Salem, and parts of Roanoke County and Montgomery County. It remained Republican in 2023, but could well be competitive in 2027, and Biden might carry the seat in 2024
HD 41 is a poorly drawn district with portions of Montgomery and Roanoke Counties, instead of having a more compact Montgomery/Radford seat. Trump won it by 354 votes in 2020, losing Montgomery but carrying Roanoke. There is a decent possibility of Biden flipping it in 2024, and it saw a remarkably close race in 2023
Gubernatorial
Despite buzz that Glenn Youngkin would win Loudon County in the state's most recent gubernatorial election, he would actually go on to lose it by about 11 points. Republicans saw gains across the state in 2021, and while they did significantly better in Loudon, it wasn't nearly enough to flip it. The precincts that he won were primarily rural in nature, and he didn't make nearly enough inroads in the urban/suburban east
In Southeastern Virginia, Democrats have typically performed extremely well in Brunswick, Greensville, Surry, and Sussex Counties, as well as the independent city of Emporia (within Greensville County). The area is narrowly majority Black by Citizen Voting Age Population (CVAP), but Democrats have seen sliding in this area in recent years. In 2017, Democrat Ralph Northam managed to win the region by just under 14 points, but in 2021, former Democratic Governor Terry McAullife won the region by a meager 4.5 point margin, actually losing in Sussex county. The area doesn't have a substantial population, but nonetheless the drop in margin here served as a relatively decent indicator of how the statewide races would go (all the statewide Democrats lost, and regional Democrats didn't perform well either)
The greater Allegheny County area (Allegheny County and the independent city of Covington) used to be one of the most downballot Democratic parts of the state. 2013 saw that strength significantly wane, as Terry McAuliffe lost the region by 6 points, only able to post winning margins in Covington and Clifton Forge (which also used to be an independent city). Both of these then-blue cities have flipped to Republicans since then, and the region subsequently far to the right
The Shenandoah Valley is one of the most scenic parts of the state of Virginia. In recent years, the more urban parts of the area (such as the independent cities of Winchester, Staunton, Harrisonburg, and Waynesboro) have seen notable growth and subsequent shifts to the left politically. Still, the area remains Republican-favoring by a wide margin. In 2017, Democratic Gubernatorial candidate and eventual Governor Ralph Northam managed to win the independent cities of Staunton and Winchester by more narrow margins, and Harrisonburg and Lexington by fairly wide margins. Unfortunately for him, Gillespie won the more populated counties of Augusta, Frederick, and Rockingham, as well as the independent city of Waynesboro. Northam subsequently lost the region by over 26 points
Senatorial
The Greater Roanoke area consists of Roanoke and Salem cities, and Roanoke County. While the region leans Republican, Tim Kaine was able to win it by just over a point in 2018. He carried Roanoke City by such a large margin that it canceled out Republican numbers in the other two. He only carried a few precincts in Roanoke County, and none in Salem