Iowa

Scott County sits along the Mississippi River to the west of Illinois. It is home to two of the Quad Cities (Davenport and Bettendorf), and has become more competitive in recent years. Biden carried the county by three and a half points, with his margin coming near exclusively from Davenport. Statewide Dems in 2022 all lost Scott, so it will be interesting to see how well Biden does this fall

Winneshiek County sits along the Minnesota border, and while its taken a turn to the right in recent years, it still remains competitive in many statewide races. Presidentially, however, Trump won it twice, doing so by just over 5 points in 2020. Democratic margins come mostly from the area around the principle city of Decorah

SD 38 contains parts of Black Hawk, Benton, and Tama counties. Biden won the seat by a narrow 99-vote margin in 2020, with that exclusively coming from the city of Cedar Falls. Democrats currently hold this seat, but are favored to lose it this fall since it isn't entitrely within Black Hawk County (like it has the potential to be)

2008 was the last real peak for Iowa Democrats. Barack Obama won the state by almost 10 points, sweeping a majority of counties in the state, and only doing particularly poorly in the Dutch-dominant northwest. Senator Tom Harkin won on the same ballot, and Democrats won 3/5 Congressional seats (although Obama carried 4)