Indiana

Allen County IN is home to Fort Wayne, and sits in the Northeastern part of the state. The last time it was federally competitive was in 2008, but its moving left notably. Trump won it by 11.44 points in 2020, with Biden peeling off a few suburban precincts when compared to 2016

Vanderburgh County sits along the Ohio River in Southern Indiana, and is home to Evansville, the region's principal city. Trump won it by almost 10 points in 2020, but the county shifted away from him when compared to 2016. The last federal Democrat to win it was Barack Obama in 2008, but former US Senator Joe Donnelly came close in 2018

Vigo County used to be one of the most reliable bellwhethers in the country. Trump narrowly won it in 2016 and won the Presidency, but as he lost in 2020, he carried it by about 15 points. Terre Haute, the county's primary city, narrowly went for Biden, but the areas further away from town went for Trump by high margins. Terre Haute also still has a Democrat representing them in the State House who holds a Trump-won seat