Kentucky

Presidential

Fayette County managed to retain its status as the bluest in Kentucky in 2024, despite Kamala Harris falling somewhat short of expectations in the area. She carried Fayette by 18.5 points, doing best downtown and in the majority-nonwhite areas to the north. Democrats won a the vast majority of legislative seats that comprise in county

HD 75 contains a decent portion of west-central Fayette County, and went for Harris by about 28 points. The portions of the district near campus and more minority-populous gave her the best margins, whereas Trump only won a precinct along Clays Mill Road, with the southern end of the seat being his relative "best" turf

HD 79 is my current home district while I study at UK, and it contains campus, a lot of graduate student housing, and assorted suburbs as it stretches over almost to Hamburg. Harris got just over 27% of the vote here, doing best in proximity to UK. Trump only won the Andover precinct in the east, but did decently around wealthy Lakeview in the middle of the seat

State Legislative

HD 45 in Fayette and Jessamine counties was the one Democratic flip of 2024. Adam Moore ran a spirited campaign against former Thomas Massie challenger Thomas Jefferson, and won by 133 votes, winning the Fayette County portion of the seat by over 6 points to secure his win. Given the significant population advantage of Fayette over Jessamine, Jessamine didn't need to be any bluer to secure a win for Moore. Beshear previously carried the seat in 2023 by double digits

HD 67 in Campbell County was my "home" district while I was at NKU, and it was the closest legislative race in the state in 2024. Democrat Matt Lehman held Rep. Rachel Roberts's  (D) seat by 30 votes, as the district likely went to Trump (albeit narrowly). Lehman's win was fueled by Newport and Bellevue along the Ohio River, and he lost support further out into the county. This is a seat that Republicans heavily contested, but likely due to nominating an inexperienced candidate and the downballot Democratic nature of the river cities, it did not pay off

Local

Lexington's 1st Metro Council District sits on the northern end of town, and is a fairly minority-heavy seat. Councilwoman Tanya Fogle lost her race to Tyler Morton by a decent, 17 point margin. Fogle (who is white) lost badly in the more diverse parts of the seat, whereas Morton (who is Black) only lost the whiter, more affluent parts of the district towards its southern end

Lexington's 4th Metro Council district saw controversial incumbent Brenda Monarrez lose re-election by over 3.5 points to activist Emma Curtis. The district contains the suburbs along Fayette County's southwestern border. Monarrez, who stands accused of sexual assault and workplace misconduct, won the more conservative parts of the district, whereas Curtis won the more liberal parts away from the county line. Emma Curtis will also become Lexington's 1st transgender city councilwoman

Democrats won 1 contested countywide race in the state in 2024, and it was for Letcher County's Commonwealth Attorney circuit. Butler won the race by over 12 points, with Whitesburg and the northern portion of the county driving his win. The local Democratic party here keeps notching win after win

Gubernatorial

Andy Beshear's most notable regional flip was that of Northern Kentucky. He won the trio of Boone, Campbell, and Kenton counties by 567 votes, after having lost the trio by about 3 points in 2019. Kenton and Boone counties swung notably to the left, and Campbell only slightly

Boone County is frequently the county where Republicans win their densest precincts in the state. While Daniel Cameron only won Boone by 12 points (significantly down from Trump's 30+), he carried dense precincts in Burlington and Union, while Beshear only won a scattering of precincts in and around Florence

Andy Beshear's 2023 performance in Campbell County was marginally better than his 2019 performance by a few points. He notably improved in Alexandria, where he flipped a precinct, and held his own in the realigning Ft. Thomas and Bellevue areas. Campbell was not a must-win for Cameron, but he needed to have done a lot better than an 8.5 point loss

Inside Campbell County, Beshear won Ft. Thomas, a historically conservative city (and my hometown) by almost 15 points. He lost one precinct, which is in the wealthier, more Catholic part of town. The city has shifted sharply left in the Trump-era, and Beshear basically inverted Trump's 2020 margin of victory in the city

Beshear needed to post solid numbers in the Bluegrass to win re-election, and flipping Clark County was the way to do that. He won the county by about 3 points in 2023 after having lost it in 2019. Notably, Andy Beshear's father, former Governor Steve Beshear, is now a resident of Winchester

Daniel Cameron needed to win his home county of Hardin by a substantial margin in order to win the governorship. Unfortunately for him, the hometown effect was likely the only reason he carried the county. The county stayed red by 154 votes, with Radcliff and Elizabethtown turning bright blue

Lee County was another area of the state that was hard-hit by floods which saw a massive shift to Beshear. After a massive loss in the county in 2019, Beshear saw his margin of defeat drop to 7 points. He actually flipped two precincts in and around Beattyville (which was at one point underwater during the flooding), and tied one Red River Gorge-adjacent precinct

Former State Rep. Angie Hatton's (D-Whitesburg) win of Letcher County in 2022 foreshadowed a Beshear victory in 2023. He carried the county by just over 4.5 points, with large margins coming from Whitesburg and Blackey. The county notably also has a nearly-completely Democratic slate of county row officeholders

Madison County was the median for the state in 2019, and despite getting bluer, voted to the right of the state in 2023. Beshear improved on his plurality win to carry Madison by about 3.5 points, though his statewide margin was D+5. The Richmond and Berea areas turned even darker shades of blue, and the outer portions of the county weren't as Republican-favoring as their typical federal partisanship would infer

Again, Perry County was a notable flip for Beshear, as he inverted Bevin's 2019 margin. The Hazard area in particular turned deep blue, likely in response to the flood recovery efforts and the slight blue trend of the city due to being a regional educational and medical hub

Beshear narrowly flipped the Red River Gorge area, home to Meniffee, Powell, and Wolfe counties. Beshear lost some ground in Meniffee, held his own in Wolfe, but managed to swing Powell massively, winning it by 1 vote. The outdoorsy culture blooming in Powell and Wolfe counties due to the Gorge likely played a significant role in this, as well as proximity to flood recovery efforts

HD 84 was another notable flip of Beshear's. His margins in parts of SEKY jetted up due to his handling of the flooding. He flipped Perry county, and dramatically improved in both Breathitt and Owsley. He had previously lost Perry by around 9 points, which makes this magnitude of flip notable

The 78th House district contains all of Pendleton and parts of Campbell, Kenton, and Boone counties. Beshear improved here compared to 2019, and managed to tie a Falmouth precinct, but would lose the district by almost 26 points

The old iteration of the 91st district stretches from a rural precinct in Madison County to Breathitt County in coal country. Despite this seat having a Democratic state rep until 2020, Beshear lost it by about 3 points. He performed well in Breathitt, but Lee, Owsley, and Estill kept the seat red

Despite the seat being drawn specifically for Democrats to win, Andy Beshear lost the old 94th HD by .8 of a point in 2023. He managed to flip Letcher County back into the Democratic column, and despite the Pikeville proper being blue, the Pike County portion of the seat kept it in Cameron's column

The old version of former Minority Leader and now Advisor to the Governor Rocky Adkin's seat was once again won by Andy Beshear. He carried it by just short of 4 points, despite his margins falling in Adkins' home of Elliott County, mainly thanks to big margins in Rowan County and the Morehead proper