Kentucky

Fayette County managed to retain its status as the bluest in Kentucky in 2024, despite Kamala Harris falling somewhat short of expectations in the area. She carried Fayette by 18.5 points, doing best downtown and in the majority-nonwhite areas to the north. Democrats won a the vast majority of legislative seats that comprise in county

HD 25 sits entirely within Hardin County, and is home to most of the city of Elizabethtown. Trump won the seat by 23 points, with Harris only winning a precinct in Radcliff (which is split amongst the Hardin-containing districts). Trump managed to flip 2 precincts in Elizabethtown, although the district's margin didn't change that much between 2020 and 2024

HD 37 sits along the southern border of Jefferson County and has a precinct or two of Bullitt. Trump won the seat by 19 points, with Harris's main area of support being the eastern portion of the seat, which contains Democratic-trending suburbs

HD 38 is a suburban seat a ways to the south of downtown Louisville. Trump flipped the seat Presidentially, with the district going from about Biden+2.5 to Trump+1.5. Simultaneously, Democratic Rep. Rachel Roarx was able to win re-election, maintaining her status as the youngest member of the Democratic caucus, and the only political scientist in the legislature

HD 65 sits within Kenton County in Northern Kentucky, and contains most of the city of Covington, all of Park Hills, and portions of Crescent Springs and Edgewood. Trump managed to expand his 2020 margin here by a few points, carrying the seat by just over 5 points. Harris did best in Covington and Park Hills, while the more suburban communities to the south put Trump over the line

HD 67 sits within Campbell County, and contains the cities of Newport, Bellevue, Dayton, Southgate, Wilder, and portions of Cold Spring, Highland Heights, and Fort Thomas. The district would have been a nail biter in 2020, but Trump managed to expand his win here to just shy of 3 points. Harris did best in the Newport and Bellevue communities, whereas Trump won the more blue collar Dayton, and more rural southern communities. Due to precinct merging, NKU's formerly blue precinct in the Highland Heights area is now pink

HD 79 is my current home district while I study at UK, and it contains campus, a lot of graduate student housing, and assorted suburbs as it stretches over almost to Hamburg. Harris got just over 27% of the vote here, doing best in proximity to UK. Trump only won the Andover precinct in the east, but did decently around wealthy Lakeview in the middle of the seat

HD 88 was a disappointment for Democrats on election night. Rep. Cherlynn Stevenson lost her seat after a narrow win in 2022, and Presidentially, Trump won the district by over 6 points. The Andover region of Lexington proved critical to the margin of victory in the seat. Had it gone blue, the seat would have been a lot closer, and Stevenson likely would have hung on

SD 6 contains Trimble, Oldham, and a portion of Jefferson counties. Trump won the seat by 12 points, only losing the Jefferson County portion. Still, the seat has lurched to the left in recent years, and Republicans will likely barely be able to hold it for its duration of use

SD 22 is the most competitive senate district around Lexington, which isn't saying much. The district went for Trump by 20 points, and was only that close because of the Fayette County portion of the seat. Jessamine County may be trending Democratic long-term, but this won't help KY Dems now

SD 32 is one of the trio of seats that splits the city of Bowling Green, and the district combines parts of the city with Simpson, Logan, and Todd counties. This is the *most* competitive seat that facilitates the split, and Trump won it by 39 points, only losing a handful of precincts between Warren and Simpson counties

SD 34 contains all of Madison County and a portion of Fayette County. Trump won the district by 21 points, with his win being entirely driven by the Madison portion of the seat. Harris won the Fayette part, and managed to win a handful of precincts in the college towns of Richmond (EKU) and Berea (Berea College)

The old iteration of SD 12 from last decade sat entirely within Fayette County, and was drawn to pack suburban Republicans. It did manage to elect a Republican for all its time in use, but Kamala Harris would have won the seat by just over 8 points in 2024. Trump won precincts on the edge of town that were more white and wealthy, whereas Harris held her ground with minorities and progressive whites

Lexington's 1st Metro Council District sits on the northern end of town, and is a fairly minority-heavy seat. Councilwoman Tanya Fogle lost her race to Tyler Morton by a decent, 17 point margin. Fogle (who is white) lost badly in the more diverse parts of the seat, whereas Morton (who is Black) only lost the whiter, more affluent parts of the district towards its southern end

Lexington's 4th Metro Council district saw controversial incumbent Brenda Monarrez lose re-election by over 3.5 points to activist Emma Curtis. The district contains the suburbs along Fayette County's southwestern border. Monarrez, who stands accused of sexual assault and workplace misconduct, won the more conservative parts of the district, whereas Curtis won the more liberal parts away from the county line. Emma Curtis will also become Lexington's 1st transgender city councilwoman