KY Redistricting 2022
The new version of Kentucky's 4th Congressional district has undergone some mild changes from its previous iteration. It now takes in the entirety of Spencer and Harrison counties, gained parts of Nelson and Carter counties, and lost its portion of Boyd County. Federally, this seat is fairly uncompetitive, and Trump won the seat by double-digit margins in 2020. However, in 2019, Andy Beshear managed to hold Matt Bevin to an 8 point margin, primarily due to his strength in the Northern Kentucky urban core and small to mid-sized cities throughout the district
The new Kentucky HD 67 is the district that I currently go to school in, and it contains all of Newport, Dayton, Bellevue, Wilder, Southgate, most of Highland Heights, and pieces of Ft. Thomas and Cold Spring. Rep. Rachel Roberts (D) was always going to have a tough re-election given the distribution of Democrats in Campbell County, but this is a setup where she has a feasible path to victory. This seat was changed primarily to exclude the Rt. 8 communities, due to the fact that a section of the road is closed to all but locals, making her old district non-contiguous in function. This necessitated the trade of Mentor and Silver Grove for pieces of Ft. Thomas. My estimate of the seat's current partisanship given Campbell County's leftward trend in 2020 would be approximately R+3. 2022 is shaping up to be a Republican favoring year, so this seat may be leaning Republican, but is by no means off the table for either party, especially with a strong, well-known Democratic incumbent holding it
Kentucky HD 67 was the closest district in the state in 2020. Biden came within 17 votes of flipping this seat, and in all likelihood lost exclusively due to the small portion of Cold Spring (as opposed to another precinct of Ft. Thomas). Rep. Rachel Roberts (D) has won previous iterations of the seat by narrow margins, but has an uphill battle to hold the seat in 2022, but lucked-out in facing a controversial opponent
The 68th district is the district that most of my family lives in. Trump won this seat by double digits in 2016 and likely in 2020, but in the 2019 gubernatorial race, Bevin couldn't even crack a 2 point win. Normally conservative Ft. Thomas broke hard for Beshear, and Bevin had to rely on his margins in Alexandria and the rural parts of the county to put him over the line
HD 65 appears to have been drawn to eliminate Democratic Rep. Buddy Wheatley. This seat, which once encompassed all of Covington, Ludlow, Bromley, and Park Hills, now shed some of the more Democratic turf of Covington along the Licking River, and picked up the conservative suburb of Edgewood in the process. Trump won this seat by about 14 points in 2016, and I estimate that he still won it by 8 in 2020. It will be very much an uphill battle for Democrats to hold the seat in 2022, but if there is a Democrat that's able to win it, its Rep. Wheatley, who is a former firefighter in this district that now includes the flagship St. Elizabeth Hospital in Edgewood
The main seat design that was used to disadvantage Rep. Wheatley in district 65 was that of HD 64. This seat, which used to take in Independence and Taylor Mill, now also has a decently blue part of Covington. Trump won this seat by almost 34 points in 2016, and likely won it in 2020 by over a 25 point margin. Andy Beshear actually narrowly won this district in 2019, but I would not expect it to be competitive on any level in the decade going forward, barring a massive acceleration of current trends
The new HD 63 encompasses Villa Hills, Ft. Mitchell, Ludlow, Bromley, and parts of Covington, Erlanger, and Florence, in addition to some of the airport communities. These areas are all different in character, and curious places to put together. Trump won this seat by over 26 points in 2016, and likely kept above a 20 point margin in 2020. This seat appears to function as a mild crack of Democratic votes, due to it taking in the one blue precinct in Boone County, and the swingier area around Covington
The new HD 69 design remains mostly similar to the previous version. This seat takes in most of Florence in Boone County, and Elsmere and parts of Independence and Erlanger in Kenton County primarily. Trump won the seat by over 28 points in 2016, but that margin was likely cut down to around 20 points in 2020. Beshear narrowly won the seat in 2019, and its definitely trending left. A better map likely would have kept Florence whole and within the Boone County lines
The new HD 94 is represented in the state house currently by Democratic Rep. Angie Hatton, who has held the seat since 2016 without much significant opposition. Despite the seat going for Trump by huge margins in 2016 and 2020, Gov. Beshear managed hold Bevin's margin of victory to under 14 points in 2019. I believe that this is more reflective of the seat's downballot partisanship. Hatton may not be favored for her re-election in 2022, but it would be unwise to rule her out immediately, especially given that she won every precinct in Letcher County in 2016 (when the seat was last contested) and that the most downballot Democratic parts of Pike have been added to the seat
The new HD 20 was drawn to be deceptively compact, while axing Democratic Rep. Patti Minther. It contains part of the city center of Bowling Green, and some turf outside of town to offset the Democrats from downtown. Trump won the seat by 12.5 points in 2016, but it likely shifted a decent amount left in 2020. Minther could still make a comeback, but it would be an uphill battle
Kentucky SD 24 remains mostly unchanged from 2010-2020, taking in Bracken, Campbell, and Pendleton counties, except now it also contains 3 precincts of the city of Covington, which serves to dilute Democratic strength in the neighboring 23rd district. Trump still won the 24th by over 30 points in 2016, and likely by over 25 in 2020
The new Kentucky HD 56 consists of all of Woodford County, and parts of Franklin and Jessamine counties. Trump won the seat by over 26 points in 2016, but in 2018, Democrats made about a 12 point gain in the district, but still fell far short of winning it. The only reliably blue areas are Versailles and Midway
The new HD 95 didn't undergo a significant change. The seat still consists of all of Floyd County, and has picked up more of Pike County to adjust for population. Democrat Ashley Tackett-Lafferty represents the seat, and Beshear won it by about 4.4 points in 2019. Seeing as Lafferty managed to win by a decent margin in 2020 while Trump swept her district, she likely has a good path to re-election in 2022
Kentucky's new SD 18 is the only Trump-won Senate district to be uncontested by Republicans in 2022. Democratic Rep. Robin Webb currently holds the seat, which picked up Lewis County in redistricting. This made the seat significantly more conservative, as Bevin now won the seat by about 3.4 points. If the seat would have been contested, Webb would have started as an underdog
The new Kentucky HD 100 splits Boyd County (home to Ashland), which could hold its own seat. The new district takes in most of the city of Ashland and groups it with Lawrence County to make a seat that Bevin managed to win by about 3 points. Both the Democratic and Republican proposals made a similar design, which appears to ignore compactness as a redistricting metric
The new Kentucky SD 30 is much more compact than previous Senate districts in Eastern Kentucky. The district takes in 9 counties that are ancestrally Democratic for the most part, and despite his comparative strength in the region, Beshear lost this seat by 11 points, only carrying 3 of the counties and doing notably well in the city of Hazard
The new Kentucky HD 84 consists of Breathitt, Owsley, and Perry counties. This likely would have been a safely Democratic seat back in the day, and remain competitive downballot until recently, but even Andy Beshear lost it in 2019 by over 9 points. Beshear only carried Breathitt County, but also did decently in Hazard
The boundaries for HD 54 remained unchanged after the 2020 redistricting. The seat contains Boyle and Casey counties, and its largest city is Danville. Beshear came close to winning Boyle County, but lost by over an 18 point margin because of Casey's deep red hue. There are few instances where this seat is likely to be competitive
The new Kentucky HD 88 contains outer portions of Fayette County, and parts of Scott County. This seat is an attempt to draw out Democratic Rep. Cherlynn Stevenson, who has represented a swingy seat for the last two cycles. She will likely have an uphill battle to win this Trump+5 seat
The new HD 91 was former Democratic Rep. Cluster Howard's seat. It gained more of Madison county, and all of Powell County, while losing Owsley, Lee, and Breathitt counties. This seat is decidedly gerrymandered to favor Republicans, seeing as Beshear narrowly lost it, and the Madison county-exclusive seat he also lost (despite having narrowly won the county)
The new SD 20 retained its general gerrymandered shape, but this time, it was drawn to go into more traditionally conservative Northern Kentucky to give Republicans a boost, instead of Democrats (seeing as it dropped Woodford county). Beshear did manage to win it though (by just over 5 points), almost exclusively due to the massive margins he got in Franklin County
Kentucky SD 20 is also the top Senate district on Kentucky Democrats' radar in 2022. Presidentially though, this wasn't a particularly competitive seat, with Trump having won it by 26 points. Franklin County (home to Frankfort) is a potential flip for Dems, but thats about it (it will almost certainly be outweighed by the rest of the deep red turf of the district)
The new SD 27 retained a lot of its shape, but served to strengthen the cracking of Lexington by gaining a decent part of the city/Fayette County. Beshear managed to win the seat by just over 4 points thanks to this portion of Fayette, and bright blue Rowan County/Morehead. He also won Nicholas County narrowly
Kentucky SD 31 was a Democratic held seat until midway through last decade, and the addition of Johnson County in redistricting only served to make the seat more Republican. Bevin won this seat by almost 17 points, only doing particularly poorly in ancestrally Democratic Elliott County and Elkhorn City in Pike County
The new Kentucky HD 48 is one of the best pickup opportunities for Kentucky Democrats this year. They had an upset loss of the seat in 2020, and the new iteration is slightly left leaning, but trending left decently fast. Biden won it by just under 2 points. It contains parts of Jefferson and Oldham counties (Outer Louisville)
Kentucky HD 73 contains a small portion of the city of Lexington in Fayette County, and all of Clark County (which contains Winchester). Bevin won the seat by just over 4 points, doing worst within the city of Winchester and in the district's portion of Lexington
HD 29 sits along the Jefferson County border, and is normally a Republican leaning seat. Beshear won it by about 8.5 points in 2019. Democrats fielded a candidate in 2022, but they were removed from the ballot due to technicalities, so it remained a default Republican hold