Arizona

Presidential

Maricopa County contains 2/3 of Arizona's population, so winning it is a must-do to win the state. Biden won it in 2020 by a narrow 2-point margin, primarily due to Democratic strength amongst Hispanics in the Phoenix proper and the Democratic-trending suburbs like Scottsdale and Chandler

AZ-06 sits along the Mexican border, and contains a lot of the suburban turf of Tuscon. In this most recent round of redistricting, Biden would have carried the seat by 306 votes, near exclusively thanks to the Pima County portion of the seat. Previously the seat much more Democratic leaning, but the AZ Redistricting Commission elected to make it much more competitive

Navajo County AZ is one of the trio of reservation-dominated counties in the north of the state, along with Apache and Coconino. Uniquely, Navajo is the only one of these counties that votes consistently Republican. In 2020, Trump carried it by 8 points, mainly thanks to the white residents of the south-central part of the county. Democrats have carried this before in statewide races, as did former Congressman Tom O'Halloran, but it remains an elusive flip for Democrats at the federal level