Minnesota
Presidential
The Iron Range of Minnesota is one of the most ancestrally Democratic areas of the state, and contains Aitkin, Carlton, Cook, Itasca, Koochiching, Lake, and Saint Louis counties. In 2020, however, now-President Joe Biden (D) only won the area by about 6 points, while Congressman Pete Stauber (R) won the region by about 3 points. Stauber's main source of improvement over Trump in the Presidential race was in Saint Louis County (home to Duluth). While Biden won the county by double digits, Nystrom only managed to cling to it by plurality. Stauber also managed to flip Carlton and Lake counties that Biden had won
Biden won the traditionally blue counties of the Iron Range by about 14 points. The outer part of the region has gotten much redder over the years, but the more coastal-adjacent portion (including Duluth) has remained reliably blue. Biden will likely be the first Presidential Democrat to lose Carlton County in a long time in 2024
Anoka County is on the northern end of the Minneapolis metropolitan area, and contains a mix of urban areas, suburbs, and more rural communities, and accordingly has become a swing county in recent years. Several Democrats were able to win it in 2018, but Biden lost it in 2020. Biden's numbers improved significantly over Hillary Clinton's in 2016, but still came about 2 points short of flipping the county. There is a clear north/south divide in the county's partisanship, and Democrats are pushing that dividing line farther north as they continue to make gains in the suburbs
Clay County MN is a Trump -> Biden County along the North Dakota border. Moorhead, the main city, sits across from Fargo, and is the political center of the county. Biden won it by 4 points thanks to Moorhead, and the lack of intense opposition to Democrats in outer townships, save a few
Beltrami County MN used to be reliably Democratic prior to the onset of the Trump era, but now it is something of a Republican leaning tossup. Trump lost ground in the county from 2016, but ended up carrying it by about 3 points. The main areas of Democratic strength are the Red Lake Native Reservation, the college town of Bemidji, Turtle River, and Ten Lake Township
Itasca County used to be a competitive area, but this ended with the onset of the Trump era. Trump carried it by about 17 points, and only lost a handful of precincts/towns, only really doing comparatively poorly with Natives and core Iron Range communities
Nicolett and Blue Earth counties serve as something of a political dyad: both have the same political lean, and share the Mankato metro. Biden won the duo by just over 4 points in 2020, only winning Mankato in Blue Earth, and North Mankato and St. Peter in Nicolett
Minnesota's SD 2 has an unfortunate shape, and sits in the north of the state along the Canadian border. The seat went for Trump by justg shy of 13 points in 2020. Biden's main bases of support in the district were Native American communities (ex. Red Lake and Cass Lake) and the city of Bemidji, home to Bemidji State University. This seat is rated at Likely R for this fall
Other Maps
Winona County is along the Wisconsin border, and in the past has been more dominated by Democrats. However, Donald Trump won the county in 2016. In 2020, Democrats made a decent comeback, but only narrowly won most of their races. The composite results of the county have them up by an average of 63 votes per race, with almost all of their strength concentrated in the city of Winona. Of the races used in the composite, Democrats won Winona County in the Presidential and US Senate races by narrow margins, the US House race by a healthier margin, but Republicans won the State Senate races by healthier margins. State House races were not used in the composite because the more Winona-centric seat was uncontested by Republicans, which would make the average for those races skew more Republican