North Carolina

Gubernatorial

The 2022 Western North Carolina (US House) centric seat seems to be a perpetually narrow but steady downballot Republican lean. The earlier iterations of this district went northeast to take in Boone, but this went more southeast to take some of the South Carolina border counties. Cooper lost this version of the seat by 4 points, with his main support coming from the TBH counties

The former design for the 14th Congressional district in North Carolina was drawn in what was likely the best form possible, save for a portion of Boone that was taken so that Rep. Foxx could have a safe seat. All of the college towns in the mountains are connected in one district (Asheville, Boone, and Cullowhee), and the seat becomes swingier and more representative of the nature and partisanship of the region and state. In the 2020 Gubernatorial Race, Governor. Roy Cooper only lost the seat by just under a 2 point margin, a testament to his strength in the mountains of North Carolina and the growing Democratic base in the TBH Counties (Transylvania, Buncombe, and Henderson, as coined by John Haynes). This was in all likelihood drawn so that controversial former Rep. Madison Cawthorn would have lost a general election, and enabled shoring up of other incumbents

North Carolina's 9th Congressional district takes a variety of turf: Raleigh suburbs, dense rural areas, and minority heavy Fayetteville, and parts of the Sandhills. Cooper lost this seat by less than a point in 2020, mainly due to Republican strength in Moore and Randolph counties, as well as Democratic margins falling in the Sandhills area. Republicans won this seat in 2022, and it will likely be remade for the 2024 cycle to be more safely Republican

The old SD 48 went for Forest by less than half of now-Congressman Chuck Edwards's margin. Forest only carried it by just under 8 points, in all likelihood losing the Buncombe County portion of the seat due to Black Mountain and Swannanoa swinging towards Cooper, as well as him gaining ground around Hendersonville and southeastern Transylvania County

HD 5 is in the northeastern part of North Carolina, and contains a mix of rural, African American turf, as well as parts of the Outer Banks, and Elizabeth City. Both Biden and Cooper won this seat in 2020, Cooper doing so by 3.5 points. CNAlysis had this seat rated as a tossup going into 2022, with Mississippi Senate candidate Mike Espy's nephew being the Democratic incumbent. This seat ended up flipping to Republicans

Rowan County is home to Salisbury, which is close to my heart, being the center of Cheerwine production. Forest won the county in the 2020 gubernatorial race by 29 points, only losing Salisbury. The county's portion of Kannapolis also saw Democrats make gains, but nowhere near enough to make the county potentially competitive

North Carolina's recently enacted 119th State House District consists of Swain, Transylvania, and Jackson counties. In decades past, this would have been a reliably Democratic seat at the state level. In the current era, however, the best showing that Democrats have been able to put up is about a 5 point loss. The more densely populated parts of the district (the city of Brevard, central Jackson County) and the more Cherokee-dominant parts (eastern Swain/northern Jackson) voted overwhelmingly Democratic, but Bryson City and the southern end of the district kept the seat in the Republican column

Senate District 7 contains Lenoir and Wayne counties in the eastern part of the state, and was likely one of the districts that Democrats would have needed to win in order to control the state senate. Roy Cooper lost the seat by about 4 points, which pretty much doomed that hope. He narrowly managed to win Lenoir County, but Forest's margin in Wayne County kept the seat red. The main cities of Kinston and Goldsboro were the main source of Democratic votes, given their heavy African American populations

The 21st Senate district takes in all of Moore and a sizable chunk of Cumberland counties in eastern North Carolina. This shape exists because of the uniqueness of North Carolina's cluster rules, and the eastern tendril of Moore County. Cooper won this seat by 5 points, mainly thanks to Fayetteville breaking heavily in his favor. This seat went to Republicans in 2022

North Carolina's new Senate District 5 (barring an ongoing lawsuit) consists of Edgecombe and Pitt counties in the eastern part of the state, and is one of the more compact-looking districts on the new map. Gov. Cooper won this seat in 2020 by an 18 point margin. He won by large margins in Greenville, Tarboro, and Rocky Mount, and his popularity in the region was in all likelihood aided by the fact that his hometown of Nashville is across the eastern county line of Edgecombe. Support for Forest came primarily from the suburbs of Greenville, and the rural areas of each county

The new North Carolina HD 93 consists of Ashe, Alleghany, and all but one precinct of Watauga County (in Blowing Rock). Forest won this seat by 8 points, which is a wider margin than he would have gotten without the seat's new addition of Alleghany County. The seat is likely competitive downballot, and Watauga County is only going to get bluer. Still, Republicans held the seat in 2022

SD 3 is in the Black Belt part of North Carolina primarily, but also contains a bit of area from the Outer Banks. The Tyrell portion of the seat is not contiguous, but is in the district due to the clustering laws in redistricting. Cooper won the seat by 8 points, but it flipped to Republicans in 2022 due to the strength of incumbent former SD 1 Sen. Bobby Hoenig (R)

Democrats represented most of the area of the new SD 50 as early as 2008, but now, Roy Cooper's 22 point loss is considered a decent performance. Democratic strength is relegated to Brevard, Cherokee, and central Jackson County, but its outweighed by the blood red far-west

HD 117 is centered around the Hendersonville area in western North Carolina. This seat is strategically made more Republican by cutting out left-trending Flat Rock. Forest won this seat in 2020 by 11 points, with his margins coming primarily from communities surrounding Hendersonville like Fletcher and Mills River. Republicans held this seat in 2022

Democrats had a hard year in the old HD 119 in 2020. Despite being relatively popular and performing well in the mountains, Gov. Cooper lost the seat by about 3.74, at the same time that Democratic Rep. Joe Sam Queen went down. He failed to carry any county in the seat, but did best in Cherokee and Cullowhee

The NC Division of Wildlife's definition of the Sandhills includes Anson, Richmond, Scotland, Hoke, Cumberland, Harnett, Lee, Moore, and Montgomery Counties. This region voted for Roy Cooper for governor in 2020 by just under 4 points, and for Trump for President by a similar margin. Winning candidates have to do well here. The region almost definitely should also include Robeson County

Columbus County was once upon a time a very Democratic county, but those days are over. Popular Governor Roy Cooper lost it in 2020 by almost 21 points, only performing well amongst minority-heavy communities like Whiteville and Lake Waccamaw

The early 2000s NC-02 was drawn to elect a Democratic congressman, but failed in 2010. Despite this, well performing Democrats in the present era tend to win the old boundaries of the seat. Cooper won it by 4.5 points, mainly thanks to the small, bright blue portion of the Raleigh proper outweighing the deep red of Johnston County

The third most recent iteration of NC-05 contained all of Watauga and Forsyth counties, and a lot of red mountain turf. Cooper posted a respectable 8.3 point loss, which is better than almost all other Democrats running in the state

Attorney General

Before the population boom, the old NC-09 contained Iredell, Lincoln, and Mecklenburg counties. Were this seat to still have been in use, Josh Stein would have won it by 18.5 points. He only carried a few precincts in Iredell (and none in Lincoln), but the sheer blue hue of Mecklenburg keeps the seat solidly blue. The last Republican to win this federally would have been Bush in 2004

Despite having out-performed Biden in many parts of the state, Stein notably ran even with Biden in Mecklenburg County, home to Charlotte. Biden did better in the whiter parts of the county, which can be seen in the red precincts in the Wedge. Still, this is a 33 point win, which helped him lock down the office

Wake County is among the fastest growing in the country, and home to Raleigh, Cary, and Apex (among other cities). Now-gubernatorial candidate Josh Stein won it by over 26 points in 2020 in his re-election bid for Attorney General, likely helped by the fact that it was his home county and the blue shifts of Cary and Apex

Buncombe County is the progressive gem of Western North Carolina. Its gotten a lot bluer in recent years, and AG Josh Stein won it by over 20 points in his 2020 re-election bid. Only the northern and western perimeters went seriously Republican

Pitt County is one of the largest in the northeast of the state. Josh Stein managed to win it in 2020 by just over 11 points. He swept in Greenville and did decently in the rurals and outer communities, which all have a notable African American population

Josh Stein disappointed me in 2020 by not carrying Jackson County. He lost it by about 6 points, but did manage to carry the core three precincts (Cullowhee, Sylva, and Webster). A Democrat can carry Jackson without winning Qualla/Cherokee, but its an uphill battle that Stein didn't pull the numbers elsewhere to win. Cashiers did shift to the left a bit, but still, it wasn't nearly enough

Union County has seen a shift to the left in recent years, with its border with Mecklenburg turning a lighter shade of pink. Stein did lose the county by over 24 points, but he did win a precinct in the left-trending zone. He'll need comparable margins to win in 2024

Robeson County used to be among the bluest counties in North Carolina, but the swing to the right of the Lumbee Native Americans has caused it to develop a red hue. After having won it in 2016, Stein lost the county in 2020 by over 8.5 points, only winning the more African American-dominant precincts

Pasqoutank County is a newly-minted swing county, home to Elizabeth City (and ECSU). Elections are now battles between the more urbanized, African American Elizabeth City and the county's rural, white areas. Stein managed to win Pasquotank by just over a point and a half in 2020

In Person County, Stein lost by over 15 points, doing the best in Roxboro and minority-heavy areas in general. However, this over-performed Biden (who was on the same ballot) by about 6 points, which makes for a respectable showing

Senatorial

In the former NC-14 design, former US Senator Kay Hagan actually managed to win the district by about 4 points. She did poorly in the present regional Democratic base of Buncombe County, but vastly over-performed in the counties around it. She managed to win Swain, Yancey, Madison, and Haywood counties, which haven't gone blue federally in over a decade

In the 2022 Senate race, Budd managed to win Jackson County by almost 9.5 points, but still managed to lose the core precincts of the county (of which Trump won Webster and Sylva). Winning Democrats typically carry the core precincts (which also includes Cullowhee) as well as Qualla (home to Cherokee), but Beasley and local candidates failed to carry Cherokee, and no contested Democrat won Jackson County in 2022

The last time that a Republican Senate candidate won Watauga County was in 2016. Then-Senator Burr carried the county by a point and a half over now-Representative Ross. Burr's strength on the outskirts of Boone and in the Blowing Rock area allowed him to carry the county at the same time that Democratic Presidential nominee Hillary Clinton flipped it blue from the 2012 Presidential race (where Mitt Romney had won it)

State Legislative

North Carolina Dems dropped into super-minority territory this April due to a party switch. Fortunately for them, the path out of the super-minority is easy, and a majority is potentially on the table. I expect a 2-seat gain at minimum, and 1 seat breaks the supermajority. Republicans control a sizable number of Biden-won seats, and its doubtful that they'll manage to hold all of them

Much to my disappointment, Republicans held HD 119 by almost 8 points in 2022. The two Native-majority precincts saw a notable rightward shift, but Transylvania County saw a decent leftward shift. Platt managed to flip several precincts to the southeast of Brevard to get Transylvania to within 4 points

The old SD 48 (2018-2020) consisted of Henderson, Transylvania, and part of Buncombe counties. It re-elected Senator Edwards in 2020 by about 18 points. Edwards won every county in the district, but performed poorly in the main cities of Black Mountain, Brevard, and Hendersonville. Edwards beat controversial Rep. Madison Cawthorn in the Republican primary for NC-11 in 2022, and said seat by about 11 points

The old North Carolina HD 74 consisted of the western portion of Forsyth County, and contains the cities of Lewisville, Clemmons, and a portion of Winston-Salem. This was a seat that North Carolina Dems needed in order to win a majority in the state house, and it was chalked up to be one of their many disappointments in 2020, as they fell just over a point short of flipping the seat

County Races

Democrats' focus on education appears to have greatly helped them in Madison County. Blevins won the at-large seat on the Board of Education by just under 4 points, in a county that Trump won by double digits. Blevins even managed to win Hot Springs, which has traditionally been one of the more conservative areas in the county

Guilford County elected a Democratic sheriff in 2018, but by a much more narrow margin than its federal partisanship. Rogers won his position by just over 5 points, only really winning the majority Black parts of Greensboro and High Point, as white federal Dems flipped back to supporting Barnes

Western North Carolina used to be a lot more Democratic leaning than it currently is federally. Despite this, Democrats in Haywood County managed to flip the Tax Collector's office in 2018. West managed to win through winning massively in the Waynesville and Lake Junaluska areas, and not getting totally blown out anywhere besides the southern end of the county

Franklin County saw Republicans win every countywide race in 2022, except for the Clerk of Superior Court race. Democrats held the seat by about 1.5 points, sweeping the northern, more African American precincts, and over-performing in the Wake County-adjacent suburbs

Despite Granville County's shift to the right in recent years, it managed to elect a Democratic sheriff in a 3-way contest. Fountain won the core Democratic base areas of the seat (Oxford and some Durham adjacent communities), Johnson won the more conservative Wake-adjacent communities, and Smoot won the rest of the county.

One of the close races in Jackson County in 2022 that flipped to Republicans was for Sheriff. Farmer (who lost in 2018) ran again, and successfully won by about 5 points. What's interesting, however, is that Buchanan (his opponent) managed to carry the fairly Republican precinct/area of Greens Creek by over 10 points. Despite this over-performance, Buchanan's margins elsewhere in the county really sank their campaign

Jackson County is my favorite place in North Carolina due to its natural beauty, and it has interesting election results. In the past, it has been more of a swing county, and contains different types of communities like small towns, a college town, majority Native American areas, tourist towns, and more rural areas. 2018 saw a wave year for Democrats, who won the county with an average 7.78 point margin across all races. In a more base-partisanship year like 2020, however, Republicans basically inverted that margin, only losing the core 3 Democratic precincts (home to Cullowhee, Sylva, and Webster)

In 2022, Jackson County's composite vote margin was R+7.66. Despite both precincts having been won by Trump in both of his runs, Webster and Sylva leaned Democratic (very narrowly in the case of Sylva). Qualla (home to Cherokee and Whittier) trended further to the right, while Cashiers in the south trended further left (but remained pretty red). No Democrats won Jackson in contested races this year, but the closest only lost by 100 votes (County Commission district 2 [at large)

Swain County is an ancestrally Democratic county in the mountains of western North Carolina, and is just northeast of Jackson County. Tourism is a heavy industry there, given that it contains part of the Great Smokey Mountains National Park. There is also a Cherokee reservation in the east end of the county (which also crosses the border with Jackson). Democrats have seen their electoral success fall significantly in recent years, and especially given the downballot effects of the 2020 Presidential Race, they've seen very limited success. In an astounding over-performance, however, the Democratic candidate for a District Court Judge seat managed to win Swain County by 49 votes. This win managed to run up huge margins in the majority Cherokee eastern precinct, and hold the Bryson City precincts to a close margin

Presidential

The 2024 iteration of NC-11 puts it at (likely) the most competitive Republican-held seat in the state, but this isn't likely saying much. Trump won the seat by 11 points, and with controversial Rep. Madison Cawthorn ousted, incumbent Chuck Edwards is likely to be reasonably safe for some time. The seat will be rated at Likely R at worst

Alamance County is a key Republican-leaning county in between the Piedmont Triad and the Research Triangle. Trump won it by 8.5 points in 2020, cleaning up in the rurals and to the south of Burlington. With the collapse of Republican gubernatorial nominee Mark Robinson, the county is absolutely in play for the gubernatorial race, and may be as well for the Presidential race

Cabbarus County is a rapidly growing county to the east of Charlotte. Trump won it by just short of 10 points in 2020. It is not likely to go to Harris this fall, but Trump is favored to lose massive ground here (and it is a flip-watch for the gubernatorial race)

Carteret County is where I've spent many weeks of family vacations. It is one of the reddest counties in the state, and has a thriving tourist industry. Trump won the county by over 40 points, only losing two majority African American precincts on the mainland. A large portion of the county's votes cast come from the Morehead City area

The old SD 3 was a nonsensical, cluster-mandated district that took in a crescent of Black Belt counties, and grouped them with Beaufort to the south. Biden won the seat by about 4 points in 2020, and Beasley lost the seat by a comparable margin in the 2022 Senate race

HD 12's layout with Jones, Lenoir, and Greene counties is mandated by the clustering scheme for the 2020s. This district went for Trump by just over 7 points, with Biden doing the best in the Kinston area. This seat could well be competitive in a Democratic wave year, but flipping Greene County will be an increasingly uphill battle due to the realignment

HD 52 consists of Rockingham and part of Moore County. Trump won it by 15 points in 2020, with the area shifting notably to the right from 2016. Despite Rockingham being somewhat competitive downballot, likely the only candidate that could win the seat on the Democratic side is Wayne Goodwin

The old HD 21 was a Black opportunity seat in the Goldsboro area. Due to clustering complications, the seat took in parts of Wayne and Sampson counties instead of being wholly within Wayne. Biden won the seat by almost 9 points, carrying the Goldsboro/Wayne portion and losing the Sampson portion

With Senator Hunt retiring to run for Lt. Governor, Republicans have attempted to redraw her seat to be somewhat competitive. This iteration of SD 42 went for Biden by about 6 points, but contains all of the currently and ancestrally conservative parts of Mecklenburg County. I rate this seat at Lean D, since Biden will also likely carry the seat by greater numbers in 2024, for the Democratic nominee has some buffer

The new HD 116 in the outer Buncombe County area was drawn to oust Rep. Prather (D), and contains Weaverville, Candler, and parts of Woodfin, Asheville, and Swannanoa. Trump carried the seat by 8, and while it has shifted to the left in recent years, that will be unlikely to save Prather for 2024. I rate this seat at Lean R

HD 119 is a seat in Jackson, Swain, and Transylvania counties that is much more competitive downballot than its Presidential numbers would suggest. Trump won the district in 2020 by 13 points, carrying every county in the seat. Of the trio of counties, Jackson is the most swingy, and winning it is critical to the chances of a potential legislative Democrat in this district

Other Races/Maps

North Carolina passed a Right to Hunt and Fish (RHF) Amendment to the state constitution in 2018. This guaranteed the right to hunt and fish for citizens of North Carolina. The measure faced criticism that it would enable citizens to challenge gun regulations on the basis of this law, but it was still voted for by over 14 points, only doing particularly poorly in more densely populated areas and more African American rural areas

The last time a Republican won Wake County was in 2016, when Agriculture Commissioner Troxler won it by just over half a point. The now solidly blue turf of Cary, Apex, and the whiter portion of downtown Raleigh voted pretty Republican. This was at the same time that Hillary Clinton swept the county, making it all the more impressive of a performance

The new North Carolina HD 119 consists of Swain, Jackson, and Transylvania counties. Using uniform shift, I calculated the approximate margins in each precinct that a Democrat would need to edge out a narrow win in the new version of the seat. Democrats would have to outright win Jackson County by a decent amount, come close in Transylvania, and keep Swain to around R+10

North Carolina's old HD 93 (in use from 2018-2022) was a competitive district in the northern part of the mountains in the west. The district consisted of Ashe and Watauga counties, with the main population center being the college town of Boone in Watauga County. In 2018, Democrat Ray Russell won the seat by just under 4.5 points, running up the numbers in Boone/Watauga County, while also over-performing the Democratic baseline in Ashe County, which is significantly more Republican-leaning. In 2020, however, Democratic fortunes fell significantly in the region. Governor Roy Cooper, the top-performing Democrat statewide (and one of 4 winning statewide Democrats), lost the seat by just under 4 points, and simultaneously Rep. Russell went down. Watauga County stayed at a relatively similar partisanship, but Ashe County snapped back to its Presidential-year partisanship, which doomed Russell's re-election.

The winning coalition in Jackson County for Democrats over the years has changed significantly to rely more on the more densely populated parts of the county, but blowout wins still look basically similar. In the 2008 US Senate race and the 2018 Sheriff race in Jackson County, both Democrats won by over a 15 point margin. Hagan in the Senate race had more reliance on northern end of the county as a whole in her win, whereas Hall was more reliant on the core area of Cullowhee/Sylva/Webster in his win. Still, they basically won the same precincts (accounting for precinct agglomerations since 2008), but with different margins of support

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