North Carolina

Due to the extreme gerrymander after the 2022 elections, NC-14 is likely the *most* competitive Republican-held seat outside of NC-11, which is perineally competitive. Trump won the district by just over 15 points, with only minor pockets of Democratic strength outside of Charlotte and Gastonia. The seat was drawn explicitly by and for former NC House Speaker Tim Moore

HD 62 sits in the northwestern corner of Guilford County, and is home to parts of Greensboro, High Point, Summerfield, and Oak Ridge. Trump won the district in 2024 by 6 points, with most of his strength coming from the more rural and exurban turf on the county's outskirts. Harris did best amongst the small concentration of minority residents of Greensboro. As the white voters in the suburbs shift leftwards, the seat will become more and more competitive, and will be one to watch in 2026

HD 74 sits in western Forsyth County, and includes all or parts of Bethania, Lewisville, Clemmons, and Winston-Salem. The district backed Trump in 2024 by 7.5 points, with Harris winning precincts in Bethania and the Winston-Salem proper. At the State House level, the district was within 3 points in 2024, so this is definitely a seat to watch in 2026

North Carolina's SD 46 is a safely Republican seat in WNC, but one where Republicans are losing ground due to the inclusion of the majority of the perimeter Buncombe County. Trump won the seat by 32 points, only losing precincts in the areas around Morganton and Black Mountain

The previous iteration of HD 119 from last decade contained all of Jackson and Swain counties, and a part of Haywood. Harris would have lost the seat by 13 points, only winning precincts in Cherokee, Cullowhee, and Lake Junaluska

The previous iteration of SD 31 from last decade was an odd configuration of Davie County, and parts of Forsyth, including Winston-Salem. In 2024, the district would have gone to Trump by over 8.5 points. Harris did best in the minority-heavy precincts in Winston-Salem, but Trumps strength in Davie County and Kernersville gave him the win

Legislatively, Democrats failed to flip HD 119, which consists of Jackson, Swain, and Transylvania counties. Gubernatorially, however, AG Josh Stein won the seat against controversial LG Mark Robinson by about 7 points. Stein flipped Jackson and Transylvania counties by around 10 points each, and held Swain to under a 10 point margin. This is the best Democratic performance in the west in over a decade. Stein notably also flipped two heavily Trump-favoring precincts in Jackson County, including Cashiers

Craven County, home to New Bern and a sizable number of the state's old statewide Democrats, almost went blue gubernatorially in 2024. Mark Robinson only won the county by just over a point, seeing his margins drop uniformly from his 2020 LG bid. Stein managed to turn New Bern and its surrounding communities much more Democratic than previous years haven seen any time recently

The county in North Carolina with the farthest left gubernatorial shift was Henderson, to the south of Asheville. The county has trended left in recent years, but still goes for Republicans under normal conditions. Stein managed to win it by about 4.5 points, turning the Hendersonville area deep blue, and flipping precincts along the Buncombe border