Montana
US Senatorial
Despite Republicans flipping 4 Senate seats (net 2) in 2018, Democratic Senator John Tester of Montana held on. He won re-election to a third term by just over 3.5 points, with his win being powered by high levels of support from Native Americans, and winning all of the largest counties in the state but Yellowstone (home to Billings). To win re-election in 2024, he'll need to keep most of this coalition alive, while improving in the urban areas to offset some rural losses
Montana SD 16, affectionately called the Stingray by many, comprises several Native American communities. Tester won the seat by almost 39 points in his 2018 re-election. The seat includes a small portion of his home county (Chouteau)
Beaverhead County is the largest county in Montana by land area. The population is relatively small, with over a third living in the Dillon area. In 2018, Tester lost this county by just over 20 points, only winning 3 precincts in Dillon. The last Democrat to carry Beaverhead was Max Baucus at the turn of the century
Chouteau County is home to Senator Tester, and he had previously carried it in his 2012 bid. However, Rosendale flipped it in 2018 by about 1.5 points. Its definitely a county to watch in 2024, and Native American turnout in the northeast of the county will be critical for Tester to flip his home back, and win the state at large
Presidential
Montana's Senate District 8 is comprised of Glacier, Pondera, Lake, and Flathead counties (though the Flathead portion of the seat regularly casts no votes). It is over 60% Native American by population. Joe Biden won the district in 2020 by about 28.5 points. His main area of strength was in the majority Native northern end of the district, which also contains Glacier National Park. This seat is one of three in the state senate that is majority Native American by Citizen Voting Age Population (CVAP), and one of two of those that are represented by Democrats
Lake County sits in close proximity to the city of Missoula, and in recent years has become somewhat of a suburb for the city. The county is also just under 1/4 Native American. In 2020, Joe Biden lost the county by 15 points, only really winning more Native-dominated precincts. At the same time, however, in the US Senate race, Democratic Governor Steve Bullock managed to cut his loss down to about 8 points, increasing his margins in the majority Native areas as well as flipping Republican leaning turf along the central corridor of the county, including in the largest city of Polson (which sits along the empty Flathead Lake precinct)
The old SD 21 was drawn to be a Native opportunity seat, but is much more conservative than the state's other 2 Native Senate seats. While Tester carried it two years prior, Biden would lose this seat by just under 3 points in 2020, mainly due to the deep red turf on the eastern end of the district