Michigan
Gubernatorial
The Upper Peninsula of Michigan is a geographically distinct unit within the state, and before the Obama era, used to be a politically distinct unit as well, as it favored Democrats more consistently than other rural areas of Michigan. After 2010, however, the realignment hit, and the area became more reliably Republican. In 2018, Democrat Gretchen Whitmer came close to cutting the Republican margin in the region to 5 points (in 2-party vote share). She won Marquette and Gogebic counties, while also doing well in the city of Houghton, Mackinac Island, and other communities along the coast
Michigan's SD 32 is a competitive seat going into this year. Trump won it by 5 points in 2020, and Whitmer won it by 4 points in 2018. Whitmer vastly over-performed the Democratic baseline in the small cities that dot the coast, and flipped the seat due to her massive margins in and around Muskegon. Terry Sabo, the Democratic nominee for the seat in 2022, needs to do marginally better in the touristy coastal towns, and hold Whitmer's numbers in Muskegon
HD 103 is shaping up to be one of the more competitive races in the Michigan state house in 2022. The seat contains all of Leelanau County, and most of Grand Traverse County. Whitmer won this ancestrally Republican seat by about 4 points, and Republicans would likely need to flip Leelanau County to win this seat, as Democrats will likely win Grand Traverse due to the Traverse City proper
HD 44 sits entirely within Calhoun County, and is notably shaped like a staple. It contains the cities of Battle Creek and Albion, as well as a few rural townships. Whitmer won this seat by just under 8 points, but well overperformed Biden here. The 2022 Democratic nominee will face a tossup race for the seat
Berrien County is a recreation and tourism heavy county in the far southwest corner of Michigan. The largest cities are Benton Harbor, St. Joseph, and Niles (partly in Cass County). In the 2018 Gubernatorial race, Bill Schuette won Berrien by about 7 points. Whitmer did best in the St. Joseph/Benton Harbor area (which has a higher African American population than the rest of the county), with significant support also coming from New Buffalo, Berrien Springs, and Niles. Schuette's wins in the precincts surrounding Benton Harbor/St. Joseph to the north and south kept the county in his column. Since 1968, the county has only voted for a Democrat presidentially once, and that was Barack Obama in 2008. Not even the very Democratic-favoring midterm of 2018 could flip it from the Republican column, though Democrats did make some gains in 2020.
Benton Harbor is currently experiencing a situation similar to Flint, where they have contaminated water, and this should be publicized more as to get them the help they need.
The "Thumb" of Michigan is one of the most reliably conservative parts of the state. This area consists of Huron, Lapeer, St. Clair, Sanilac, and Tuscola counties, and its largest city is Port Huron, across the Canadian border from Sarnia. Even though Democrat Gretchen Whitmer won by almost 10 points (in 2-party vote share), she lost this region by 20 points. Her best showing was (unsurprisingly) in Port Huron, given the increased population density
Presidential
SD 37 contains most of the Cherry Coast region of the state, as well as a portion of the end of the Upper Peninsula. Trump won the area in 2020 by 11.5 points, but Democrats have made significant gains here in recent years. It is unlikely that Republicans maintain their dominance in this seat and the Cherry Coast at large for the duration of the decade
Michigan's HD 92 is comprised of all of Isabella County, and part of Gratiot County. In 2020, Trump won the seat by 8 points, with Gratiot and rural Isabella outweighing deep blue Mt. Pleasant. I would expect Trump and other Republicans to carry the seat this fall, but by narrower margins. I have it rated at Leans Republican