Kentucky
Gubernatorial
The old KY-06 was drawn to protect Democratic incumbent Ben Chandler, but immediately elected Republican Andy Barr. Andy Beshear won the seat by almost 14 ponts in 2019, running up the margins in Frankfort, the Lexington area, and winning some of the more rural counties
Gov. Beshear would have lost the old KY-04 in his 2019 run by about 5.5 points. This iteration of the district was more favorable to Democrats, having included Rowan and Elliott counties, as well as the rest of Boyd vs the 2010s iteration that was in place at the time
The core counties of Northern Kentucky saw Matt Bevin's margins tank from 2015 to 2019. Bevin only carried the trio by 3 points, only winning Boone County. Beshear flipped Kenton and Campbell counties, Campbell by almost double digits
Kentucky's Jackson Purchase sits to the West of the Land of Between the Lakes, and has Kentucky's most prominent exclave. Beshear lost the region in 2019 by over 21 points. He did well in the cities of Murray and Paducah, but carried none of the region's 8 counties
Fayette County posted Beshear's second biggest margin in Kentucky in 2019. He carried the county by 33 points, and seriously cut into Republican support in the suburbs. The precincts he lost were more rural-dominant or more wealthy
Kenton County is one of the largest counties in Kentucky, and it was quite possibly the crown jewel of Beshear's 2019 win. It is one of the state's most ancestrally Republican counties, but Beshear was able to win it by a point. He did very well in Covington and Elsmere, and flipped enough precincts in Ft. Mitchell, Independence, and Villa Hills to push him to a win. No other candidate in 2019 was even able to come close to his margins here
Boyd County is likely going to be one that Beshear needs to win (likely by a larger margin as well) in order to secure a second term in 2023. He won it in 2019 by 6 points. He did well in the river cities of Ashland, Westwood, and Catlettsburg, but not so much in the interior and southern portions of the county
McCracken County is home to Paducah, and while the are used to have a Democratic state rep, that era is far gone. Despite Paducah's deep blue hue, Beshear lost McCracken by 15.5 points in 2019, primarily due to Bevin's strength in the surrounding suburban and rural communities
The Red River Gorge is my favorite place to hike in Kentucky, and was one of the places that got me into being an avid hiker. Politically, this region has also been interesting. The last Democrat to come close to carrying the region Presidentially was Barack Obama in 2008, but in 2019, Andy Beshear came within 2 points of flipping the region in the Gubernatorial race, which he won. He won Wolfe County in the southeast, but narrowly lost Menifee and Powell Counties. Powell contains a plurality of the population in the region, so Bevin winning it handed him the Gorge
Kentucky HD 51 consists of Marion and Taylor counties in west-central KY. Bevin carried the duo in 2019 by almost 12 points, due to his huge margins out of Taylor County. Beshear won Marion handily, but it has significantly less population out of the two, and only carried one precinct in Campbellsville in Taylor County
Kentucky's HD 96 is comprised of Carter and Lawrence counties. At the time of the 2019 Gubernatorial Election, the seat was represented by a Democrat (who won the seat by 7 votes) for the first time since its creation. Despite this and a decent swing towards Beshear that year, Matt Bevin was able to win the seat by about 5.5 points. Beshear won Carter County, and did especially well along the I-64 corridor, but Bevin's margin of victory in Lawrence County kept the seat in the Republican column. In 2020, this seat would flip to Republicans in the state house by an enormous margin
Beshear would have won the current iteration of KY SD 24 in 2019 by just over 3 points. His big numbers in northern Campbell County (along with the tiny portion of Covington) would have offset Bevin's numbers in Bracken and Pendleton. Beshear will likely need to win the seat by a larger margin to win the state this fall, given expected losses in rural parts of the state
Kentucky SD 29 was drawn to be a Democratic favoring seat, but it this design would come to fail as the decade progressed. In the 2019 gubernatorial race, Andy Beshear lost the seat by over a 6 point margin, only winning Knott and Floyd counties in the northern end of the district. This would foreshadow the fall of Senator Johnnie Turner in 2020, who narrowly lost re-election versus an opponent that shared the same name at the same time that Donald Trump swept the district
The former Kentucky HD 81 sits entirely within Madison County, and runs along I-75 to combine Richmond (home to Eastern Kentucky University) and Berea (a center of artsy culture and Berea College). Beshear won this district by a massive 18 point margin, but despite its competitive downballot lean, no Democrat has represented this seat since 2016. Madison County is now gerrymandered to prevent a Democrat from holding any of the 3 seats that are at least partially within the county
Christian County sits in western Kentucky, and is home to Hopkinsville, Oak Grove, and part of Ft. Campbell. Despite it being a more populous county for the region, Beshear lost it by 14 points. There was a formerly competitive state house seat based within the county, but it was disassembled in 2020
Daviess County is home to Owensboro, and Democrats haven't had a good decade there. The county government is almost totally Republican now, and the former Democratic Rep from Owensboro lost in 2020. Beshear managed to limit his 2019 loss to just under 4 points, but could do better in 2023 if the Republican ticket's home-turf effect isn't too strong
In 2019, only two statewide Democrats managed to carry Floyd County: native son Greg Stumbo and Andy Beshear. Beshear managed to do so by almost 8 points, doing best in the ancestrally Democratic southern end of the county around McDowell (more of a coal country-esque area), with more Republican favoring margins around Prestonburg in the north (where Stumbo was from)
Hancock County is a small county outside of Ownsboro along the Ohio River. Its home to the incorporated towns of Lewisport and Hawesville, and backed Beshear in 2019 by almost 7 points. Given the small, predominantly rural nature of the county, I would expect it to flip to Cameron this fall, but I may well be surprised
On paper, Hardin County would have been a solid flip opportunity for Andy Beshear in 2023, given that he performed fairly well in the Radcliff, Ft. Knox, and Elizabethtown areas in 2019, only losing the county by just under 5 points. Unfortunately for him, Daniel Cameron is from Hardin County, and barring a significant underperformance from the Republican ticket, it is hard to see Cameron losing it
The BMN counties (Boyle, Marion, and Nelson) narrowly favored Andy Beshear in 2019. Boyle and Nelson backed Bevin narrowly, but Beshear's solid numbers from Marion fliped the trio. He will likely need to win the region (and all of its counties) more handily than in 2019 to win the state in 2023Â
State Legislative
My former State Rep from my time at NKU, Rachel Roberts (D), won re-election in 2022 in a slightly more unfriendly district. Gearding, her opponent, had a complicated criminal history (and has a pending lawsuit against police due to this), and Roberts was able to cruise to a 12-point re-election. Her margins in Southgate and the River Cities sealed the deal, with the typically-more-Republican Highland Heights area not supporting Gearding by nearly enough for him to eke out a win
Now SoS candidate Buddy Wheatley lost his seat in the State House in 2022 due to gerrymandering. His previously safe blue seat flipped because parts of blue Covington were cut out, and parts of red Edgewood and Cresent Springs were added. While he slightly over-performed Biden, he still lost by 2 points, and likely would have been favored to retake the seat had he mounted a comeback bid in 2024
The closest race in the Kentucky state house in 2022 was for HD 88. It was drawn to eliminate Rep. Cherlynn Stevenson (D), and subsequently hopped the Scott County line to take in more conservative turf. Regardless, Stevenson managed to win by a very narrow margin, mainly thanks to her portion of Fayette County clocking in bluer than average
The most competitive State Senate race in Kentucky was in SD 20, which is gerrymandered to stretch from Frankfort to the outer areas of the NKY core. Williams kept the seat in Republican hands, but Barton turned Frankfort a deep shade of blue. Despite all the hype around the race, Williams won by over 12 points. There was also a bit of a regional divide, with Williams being from Boone County, and Barton being from Franklin
My non-Lexington home district (the 68th) saw Rep. Joe Fischer (R) retire to run for state Supreme Court (in which race he lost). He was succeeded by Mike Clines (R), who emerged as the more moderate Republican from the primary (one of his opponent being Mothers For Liberty member Mirna Eads), and won by 27 points. The Democratic nominee, Kelly Jones, did manage to flip 3 precincts in Ft. Thomas, one of the former conservative bastions of Northern Kentucky
HD 94, dubbed "The Sword of Kentucky", flipped to Republicans this year. Rep. Angie Hatton managed to keep Letcher County blue, but lost due to Justice's margins in Pike and Harlan counties. Traditionally blue Elkhorn City broke for Republicans, and contributed significantly to her loss
Former House Minority Leader Rocky Adkins seat flipped to Republicans in a special election in 2020, and remained that way in 2022. Rep. White held the seat, but significantly underperformed Trump's margins in the districts, in particulr in Rowan County (Morehead). This is probably the best opportunity for state Dems to flip an ancestrally Democratic seat
HD 93 was moved from Eastern Kentucky to the Lexington suburbs during this round of redistricting. Now-Rep. Swann won the seat by lower margins than Biden carried it by, but still won the seat by a healthy margin, only doing particularly poorly near the outskirts of town
Kentucky's 24th Senate District is my home district. 2018 saw the closest election of Sen. Schroeder's (R) career, and the rise of now State Rep. Rachel Roberts (D). Schroeder won by a typically comfortable 14 point margin, but that was down significantly from his 2014 numbers. Roberts won the district she currently represents (HD 67), and managed to win three Trump+50-ish precincts in Bracken County
The old iteration of HD 39 contained most of Jessamine County, and a little bit of Fayette/Lexington. Despite Jessamine's notable red hue federally, then-Rep. Meyer held their seat by over 11 points, winning Jessamine handily despite Republicans flipping the State House that year (in part due to Trump's coattails). This seat would flip in 2020
The old HD 91 stretched from Madison County in the west to Breathitt in the east. Former Rep. Cluster Howard mounted a comeback bid for the seat, defeating Rep. Howard by 7 votes, and won thanks to huge margins out of Breathitt County (with Howard being from Jackson). Howard retired in 2020, and the seat flippedÂ
The old Kentucky HD 93 may have voted for Trump by huge margins in 2016 and 2020, but in 2018, it re-elected Democratic Rep Chris Harris by 22 points. Harris won all but 1 precinct in Pike County by over a 15 point margin, and this overcame the more Republican favoring precincts in Martin County. Harris would retire in 2020 to make an unsuccessful bid for State Supreme Court. The Democratic candidate to succeed him in the 93rd would end up losing, but would only lose Pike County by single digits at the same time Trump won it
Kentucky HD 94 was drawn to be a safe Democratic seat upon its creation. Republican candidates for President have carried the seat for the majority of the 21st century, but despite this, it has never elected a Republican representative, and it has only been contested by Republicans this one time. Despite Donald Trump carrying the seat by a wide margin in 2016, current Democratic Rep. Angie Hatton managed to win the seat by about a point and a half. The seat highlighted a clear regional divide between the candidates: Hatton was from Letcher County, and Justice was from Pike County, and was the mayor of Pikeville
The old HD 70 consisted of Bracken, Fleming, Mason, and Robertson counties. Robertson County did not report data, so the data for it is simulated based on precinct lean and overall county results. Sims won by over 12 points, winning normally-red Fleming County by a huge margin, and only losing Bracken County. He went uncontested in 2018, and the seat flipped in 2020 when Sims retired
The old HD 96 used to consist of Carter and Lawrence counties. Despite the solidly conservative lean of the seat, Hinkle managed a 5-vote upset in 2018. She won Carter county narrowly, and narrowly lost Lawrence. In 2020, Hinkle would get blown out by about a 50-point margin
Kentucky HD 56 flipped to Republicans in 2020, and remained in their hands this last cycle. Fister improved on his 2020 margin for a 12 point win, narrowly carrying Woodford County and comparatively sweeping Jessamine and Franklin counties. This seat could be competitive, but a Democrat would have to vastly overperform across the board, which is difficult due to the overwhelming religious conservative lean of Wilmore
Kentucky Dmocrats last won HD 10 in a contested race in 2016. Former Rep. Schamore won by about 3 points, and carried all three counties in the district. When he retired in 2018, Calloway ran for the seat and won. He has since made homphobic comments, but in all likelihood has the seat as long as he wants it
Former Rep. Rick Nelson won his last re-election bid to HD 87 in 2016 by 3 points. His home county of Bell went for him solidly, but he only carried one precinct in Harlan County. He would later go on to become Mayor of Middleborough
Referenda
My home county made me proud on election day when it voted against Amendment 2, which would have banned abortion in most instances in the state. The whole northern portion of the county went strongly against the measure, even the more conservative, Catholic parts of Ft. Thomas
Boone County is the most conservative county in the NKY core, but even there, Amendment 2 only passed by about 2 points. Most of the communities along the I-71/75 corridor seem to have went against it, and this map likely represents the best path for Democrats to flip the county a long way down the road
Primaries
Andy Beshear's 2019 win in the gubernatorial primary was far from a certainty. He faced State House Minority Leader, Rocky Adkins, and former State Auditor, Adam Edelen. Adkins cleaned up in his home turf of Eastern Kentucky, and Edelen won in primarily progressive areas and along the Ohio River. Beshear won by 6 points, but clocked in at under 40% of the vote
The KY-06 Democratic primary in 2022 largely slipped under the radar of state Democrats. Controversial candidate Geoff Young (who has been banned from the state party HQ) managed to win the primary for the seat by about 3 points. Despite this, he lost Fayette County to his opponent Chris Preece. Preece won the more progressive areas of town, and Young the more conservative areas. Young also had a billboard along New Circle Road, which may have handed him the election, given his raw vote margin and Preece's lack of financial support
Fayette County is the second largest county in Kentucky, and home to a decent chunk of Democratic votes. Prior to the 2019 Gubernatorial primary, however, I wouldn't have said it was particularly progressive. Surprisingly though, Beshear only won Fayette by under 10 points, with progressive Adam Edelen cracking a third of the vote. Adkins did about 11 points better here than he did in Louisville, and its unclear how well he would have done if Edelen had not been in the race (due to both candidates having decent name recognition from their time in office)
During the 2019 Democratic Gubernatorial primary, Andy Beshear had a very solid base in Northern Kentucky as a whole. In Campbell County in particular, he almost cracked 50% of the vote and cleared a 23-point margin, and only lost a handful of precincts. Surprisingly, Adam Edelen managed to win precincts in Ft. Thomas, which is one of the most ancestrally conservative parts of the district. Adkins had a notably lackluster performance here, only winning 2 precincts
One of the few counties that Adam Edelen won in the 2019 Democratic Gubernatorial primary was his birth county of Meade along the Ohio River in western Kentucky. He swept the county by a 36-point margin, and only lost the 2 precincts along the Hardin County border (near Ft. Knox, where Beshear performed very well)
Countywide
Democrats got a slap in the face in 2022 in Jefferson County, only narrowly winning the mayor's office and losing seats on the metro council. In the mayoral race, Greenburg only won by 5.5 points, doing extremely poorly in the outer suburbs, and relying mainly on the African American base in downtown Louisville
The lone Democrat to win Clark County while facing Republican opposition in 2018 was in the race for county jailer. Doyle, the incumbent, managed a 23 point win, and carried every precinct in the county. He did best in the more urban area around Winchester. Several elected Democrats in Clark County were re-elected in the same year without any Republican opposition
Wolfe County has historically been amongst the most downballot Democratic-leaning counties in the state. Despite the rumored "red wave" of 2022, Democrats found a lot of success in 2022. Only three races saw Republicans get above 55% of the vote, and Democrats managed a clean sweep of the county offices. To show this contrast, the one contested countywide Democrat (the PVA) won by a massive 33.5 point margin, and the Democrat for state rep managed to win a Campton precinct (which Biden was unable to do). Absentee ballots were not sorted by precinct, so those counts are also included (around 2700 ballots were cast in the county)
Boyle County elected another countywide Democrat in 2022. The race for Judge Executive went blue by just over 2.5%, with Bottom beating the incumbent Hunter by running up the margins and flipping Danville area precincts (and Perryville)
Rowan County is among the more federally competitive counties in Eastern Kentucky, and remains fairly blue downballot. In one of the closer races, the Democratic County Clerk won re-election by over 12.5 points, winning all but 2 precincts in the northern end of the county, and posting very strong numbers in and around Morehead. This is the office that was previously held by Kim Davis, the woman who denied marriage licenses to gay couples
Despite Elliott County's shift to the right at higher levels of government, locally, its still very blue. The only countwide race that Republicans contested in 2022 was the Sheriff's office, and they lost that race by over 33 points. Democratic strength was strongest around Sandy Hook (home to Rocky Adkins), and the closest precinct was around D+4
The closest race in Carter County in 2022 was the race for Coroner. Republicans won the seat by turning Grayson and the eastern end of the county red, while Olive Hill and the west went blue, making for an R+5.76 race. Oddly enough, another countywide race saw the coalitions inverse
The bluest contested race in Greenup County in 2022 was the race for County Attorney. Closest is also a relative term, as Wilson still lost the race by over 28 points. While improving on federal partisanship, Wilson still only managed to flip one precinct in Flatwoods narrowly. The area does have a Democratic state senator, but she was uncontested
Henderson County was last won by a Presidential Democrat in 2008, when Barack Obama ran for his first term. The county has shifted right since then, but still narrowly elected a Democratic Jailer in 2022. The Henderson area managed to outweigh the county's rurals for just short of a 2-point victory
Letcher County Democrats had a good year downballot in 2022, and the closest contested office that they won was the Coroner's office. The inner areas of the county and almost all the incorporated areas (save Blackey) went for Democrats. The only office held by Republicans in the county is Judge Executive
The Justice family had a mixed year in Pike County races. One of them flipped a state house seat, and one lost badly in the Sheriff's race. Sheriff Scott won by over 17 points, and performed well in most areas of the county, but especially so around Pikeville and Elkhorn City
Breathitt County narrowly elected a Democratic Judge-Executive in 2022, despite going heavily for federal Republicans. Democrats did best around Jackson and in the south of the county, and ultimately held the office by just over 4 pointsÂ
Bath County sits along I-64 in Eastern Kentucky, and while federally Republican, has been something of a bellweather for statewide elections. The county is also much bluer downballot, and in 2022, it saw a Democrat win the Jailer's office by almost 9 points, doing best in the main city of Owingsville, and doing more poorly in the unincorporated areas
Menifee County is one of the three that contain parts of Red River Gorge, and as is custom with the region, saw Democrats do well in local offices. Menifee elected a Democratic coroner by just under 9 points in 2022, with Peck (D) only losing 1 precinct, and dominating with the absentee votes
The best performing contested Democrat in Boyd County in 2022 was the nominee for County Attorney. Boyd County's downballot blue hue has faded away significantly, and while outperforming the area's federal partisanship and flipping a sizable number of precincts along the Ohio, Hedrick still lost by 12 points
Presidential
Campbell County, my home county, saw Trump's margin of victory drop from 2016. Still, he won by 19 points, sweeping most of the southern area of the county. Biden made inroads in suburbs like Ft. Thomas and Alexandria, the river cities of Bellevue and Dayton, while losing some ground in Newport due to the shrinking Black population
Using the Harvard estimates, we now have data for how all the precincts in Kentucky likely voted. Fayette County saw a massive Democratic swing, and it came primarily from outside the city center. Clinton only won the county by single digits, and Biden cracked a 20 point margin in terms of 2 party vote-share
Franklin County is home to Frankfort, the state capital. It was the closest county in the state, with Trump only winning it by a point, about 250 votes. The precinct data is simulated, but Biden in all likelihood did better in the eastern, denser part of the Frankfort area, while losing ground in the outer areas of the county
Rowan County is the most blue comparatively in Eastern Kentucky. Trump still won it by over 21 points in 2020, but the Democratic strength around Morehead State University in downtown Morehead is evident. Rowan County is notable for being where Kim Davis denied marriage licenses to LGBTQ+ couples
Woodford County was the second closest county in Kentucky in 2020. Despite that, Trump still won it by over 12 points. Democratic strength is concentrated in Versailles (the main city/county seat) and the smaller city of Midway. As a general rule, Democrats need to win this county to win KY-06 and statewide, but I would rate it at Likely R in a neutral environment
Thanks to Harvard recently computing the 2020 Presidential results for Kentucky, we can now better understand the political geography of the state. In regards to Northern Kentucky, Trump won by 25 points, which is a decent drop from Republican numbers in past years. Democratic strength is expanding outwards through the suburbs from Covington and Newport
I recently moved to HD 75 to attend graduate school at the University of Kentucky. This is one of the most Democratic seats in the state, with Clinton almost hitting 65% of the 2-party share. Biden likely improved on Clinton significantly in the outer portions of the district in 2020, and Rep. Flood ran without Republican opposition in 2018
Kentucky's 12th Senate district is possibly the most competitive of the handful that serve to split the outer regions of Lexington. This being said, Trump still won the seat by 15.52 points. The seat does have the fastest left-trending part of Lexington, left-trending Boyle County, and the state-level swingy Woodford County. Down the line this may become competitive, but it is unlikely to be so for 2024
SD 36 in suburban Jefferson County is the most competitive senate seat in the state. Trump managed to win it by 3 points in 2020, and it went uncontested by Democrats in 2022. It will likely be won by Biden in 2024, which makes it the only true flip opportunity for Democrats in Kentucky's senate this decade
Kentucky's HD 93 is a new addition to the Lexington area, having formerly been in Eastern Kentucky. Biden won this seat by about 17 points, doing worst on the outskirts of town. This seat is up for a special election in 2023 as the result of the untimely passing of Rep. Lamin Swann (D), and I rate it at Lean D due to the ancestral Republical strength and the lackluster special election nominee
Legislative Votes/Composition
The last time Democrats won a majority on the Kentucky state senate was in 1998. They were still dominant in Eastern and Western Kentucky at the time, including 5 uncontested seats between 1996 and 1998 cycles. Despite this majority, Republicans controlled the chamber due to 5 Democratic defections from the majority, and then the chamber outright flipped in 2000
In the last legislative session before new lines were drawn, the Kentucky State House passed a bill (HB 9) that would expand charter schools throughout the state. Despite this being a national Republican priority, the vote came down to the wire. All present Democrats opposed it, along with around a third of the Republican caucus. In the end, the bill passed by 5 votes, and was vetoed by Gov. Beshear, which was then overturned 52-46 (with the Republican from HD 70 (Maysville area) returning and voting in favor
Other Races/Maps
Despite Donald Trump carrying Pike County by a huge margin in 2016, the state house vote was much closer. Republicans won it by about 6 points, but Democrats won some precincts by massive margins in the east, especially in former Democratic Rep. Chris Harris's district. This margin would increase in 2018, with Democratic Rep. Hatton's seat going uncontested
Although the Kentucky State Supreme Court is technically non-partisan, candidates typically find partisan support of some kind. This, however, did not help my former State Rep. Joe Fischer (R). He ran a blatantly partisan campaign for the District 6 seat, and lost by a decent margin, including our home county, Campbell. He lost most of the northern end of the county, but did win some of the more Catholic areas (ex. northern Ft. Thomas)
Fischer also didn't do well on the Louisville-area-end of SC District 6. He lost Oldham County by almost 11 points, only winning precincts on the outskirts of the county. Moderate Republicans appeared to not be fans of him and his policies
The old Kentucky HD 56 was drawn to be a seat that Democrats could win down-ballot, and consisted of Woodford County, and portions of Fayette and Franklin counties. Trump won the seat by over 12 points, in 2016, but Amy McGrath won the seat by 87 votes in 2018. Democrats represented this seat in the state house until 2020, and even then it was one of the closest races in the state house
The 2001 iteration of Kentucky's SD 25 is an interesting sight. This seat stretches from Morehead in the far north, has an arm to Salyersville in the east and south to Hyden. This, in all likelihood, was a Democratic gerrymander at the time, as the northern counties used to vote a lot more reliably blue. Beshear lost this seat by over 12 points, mainly due to the blood red southern end
The grandpa of one of my former roommates was a magistrate for Hardin County, and represents a district to the northwest of Elizabethtown. He'd gone uncontested for several years, so I had to go back to 2010 to find his last contested race. The western precincts have changed slightly, but his grandpa (Clem) swept the district by an 18 point margin, and only narrowly lost 1 precinct
Pike County saw dramatic shifts between 2016 and 2018 that had a decent amount to do with federal partisanship. 2016 saw a much more Republican leaning year, but with primarily federal races on the ballot. 2018 was a year that saw more local races on the ballot, with a somewhat lesser margin (but less significant) than 2016. The most Democratic precinct was in Elkhorn City, and the most Republican just northeast of Coal Run Village
Woodford County is home to 8 magisterial districts, which is a lot for a not too large county. While Trump carried them in in 2016, Beshear managed to carry 7/8, many by double digits
In 2023, Matt Bowman once again ran for Treasurer, and flipped two counties. One of these was Franklin (home to Frankfort), and the other was Rowan, and just by 52 votes. Bowman ran up the margins in the Morehead proper, and did much better than the average statewide Dem in the rural areas. Auditor candidate Kim Reeder also carried the county, in addition to massive over-performer Andy Beshear
In simulating a 1-vote win in HD 84 by averaging Biden's 2020 run and Beshear's 2023 run shifted to 0, we can understand how a candidate might be able to win the seat under a variable environment. The results show that, while losing Owsley County, a Democrat narrowly flipping Perry and carrying Breathitt by a decent amount would result in a Democratic win