Ohio
Presidential
In 2020, Ohio voted for Donald Trump by just over 8 points (2 party share), which marked a continued direction away from being the nation's bellwether. Biden only won a handful of counties (Hamilton, Montgomery, Athens, Franklin, Summit, Cuyahoga, and Lucas), but these were densely populated enough that he was almost able to hit 46% of the vote
SD 8 sits within Hamilton County, and wraps around the city of Cincinnati to help facilitate a gerrymander in the State House. Trump won the seat by just short of 11 points in 2020, doing worse in the minority-heavy central part of the district. Its also worth noting that the eastern end of the seat is some of the most college-educated turf in the state, and is shifting to the left rapidly. Republicans likely only have one more cycle with this seat
SD 24 sits in the souther end of Cuyahogha County, and takes in several blue collar communities, as well as parts of the city of Cleveland. Trump only won the district by 50 votes in 2020, so this fall the seat is anyone's game
SD 27 contains all of Portage County, and parts of Geauga and Summit. Trump carried it in 2020 by just shy of 4 points, doing worst in Twinsburg and Kent, and doing best in rural Portage County. Democrats are gaining in the more educated parts of the trio of counties, but outer Portage and southern Summit counties are providing Republican gains. Expect this seat to be a competitive one for the 2026 election cycle
SD 33 contains Mahoning, Columbiana, and Carroll counties. A seat containing Youngstown and Warren would make more sense, but would be illegal under Ohio redistricting law. Democrats only do well in Mahoning County (mostly just Youngstown), and get blown out of the water in the rest of the seat
My grandparents and some other family live in Mahoning and Columbiana counties, so I've become familiar with the area over the years
HD 10 contains a small part of Columbus, as well as the cities of Urbancrest and Grove City. This seat is one of the most ancestrally Republican parts of the county, but narrowly would have gone for Joe Biden in 2020. The seat is trending quickly to the left, but almost Democrats' entire margins are still coming from the Columbus portion of the seat
The new HD 35 is likely to be the most competitive race in the chamber for 2024. The redrawn district contains highly educated portions of Summit, Portage, and Geauga counties, and only went for Trump in 2020 by 356 votes. The seat has a Republican incumbent currently, but given the trends with college-educated voters, it's anybody's race
Ohio's new HD 41 for 2024 is a safely Democratic seat containing part of Toledo, Maumee, and Holland. Biden won this seat by just over 20 points in two party vote share, mainly thanks to the Toledo proper. Former candidate Collin Flanagan is seeking the Democratic nomination for the seat, and is likely to win if nominated
In the pre-2024 redistricting round, the Democratic lean of HD 58 was restored. Youngstown is grouped with Austintown, Poland, and some smaller towns and townships to make a seat that Biden won by 13.5 points. The seat is safely Democratic this coming November
Allen County is home to Lima, the biggest city in Ohio's western plains. Trump won the county by 40 points, only losing the more racially diverse precincts of Lima. The last Democrat that I am aware of who carried Allen was former Senator and astronaut John Glenn
Cuyahoga County is one of the largest and bluest counties in Ohio. Biden won it by 34.5 points, running up the numbers in the majority African American neighborhoods in Cleveland and the eastern part of the county, as well as increasing margins with whites in the west, such as in liberal suburbs like Lakewood. Republicans still dominate the southern part of the county in places like Parma and Strongsville
Delaware County is one of the fastest growing counties in Ohio, and sits just north of Columbus. Biden had the best performance of a Democrat in a long time there, only losing by about 7 points. He made gains in all of the county's major cities, but the more rural and/or staunchly Republican areas kept the county red
Fairfield County sits to the southeast of Columbus, and actually contains a small portion of the city itself, in addition to its main cities of Pickerington and Lancaster. Trump won the county by almost 24 points, but the county has seen a notable shift to the left in recent years, with the northwest corner of the county with Columbus and Pickerington now voting fairly Democratic
One of my PhD cohort members is from Knox County, which is Northeast of Columbus. Trump won the county by over 40 points, but there was a bright blue spot in Gambier. Gambier is home to Kenyon College, which explains the blueness
Lake County sits to the east of Cleveland (Cuyahoga County), and contains many of the cities suburbs. Despite Democrats winning many areas with similar character, Donald Trump was able to carry the county by almost 14 points in 2020. Joe Biden performed the best in Painesville, Willoughby, and Wickliffe, but Trump's dominance in the outer areas of these cities and in the more rural far east of the county locked down Lake County for him.
Lorain County used to be (and still is to a degree) a major part of steel production of the Rust Belt. Donald Trump flipped this county in 2020, after he narrowly lost it in 2016 (the same is also true for Mahoning County). Democrats still managed to hold onto the cities of Lorain, Elyria, and Oberlin (home to Oberlin College), and make gains in the northeast of the county, which has become more liberal in part due to more Democrats moving there as a bedroom community for neighboring Cleveland/Cuyahoga County. The county will still likely be competitive in coming years, but Republicans will in all likelihood continue to have an edge. Tim Ryan managed a narrow win here in 2022
The old Ohio HD 27 (2010-2020) was comprised of the eastern portion of Cincinnati, and the educated strip along the Hamilton/Clermont line. While this was originally drawn to be a Republican seat, Biden won it by almost 5 points, mainly due to the deep blue of Cincinnati. This seat is now safely Democratic and around D+16
The 2010s HD 58 was a compact seat that took in Youngstown and some of its nearby communities. Biden won the seat by 24 points, but only parts of Austintown swung Democratic. This rightward trend emboldened Republicans to gerrymander the area, and the new HD 58 lost Youngstown, and went for Trump by about 6 points
Under my ideal version of OH-07, Biden would have narrowly won the seat by about 3 points. In an inverse from the 2016 election, Lorain went red while the Cuyahoga portion went blue. The northwestern portion of Cuyahoga would be whats really keeping the seat competitive for Democrats
A hypothetical OH-13 that I like to draw (which could also theoretically be passed in 2024) combines Summit, Medina, and parts of Portage Counties. Biden would have won this seat by just over a point, thanks to Akron, its suburbs, and Kent (home to Kent State University). Rep. Sykes (D) likely would have also won this seat in 2022 given her over-performance
OH-10 is likely the only fair district on Ohio's Congressional map (prior to pending redraws). The seat takes in Montgomery, Greene, and part of Clark counties. Trump won it by about 3.5 points, losing Dayton/Montgomery County, and seeing Biden peel off voters in suburbs like Beavercreek
The Mahoing Valley MSA used to be one of the most reliably Democratic in the nation, but the onset of the Trump-era saw the end of this. Trump won the MSA by 6 points against Joe Biden in 2020, with Biden's support limited mainly to Youngstown, Warren, and Girard. The only bright spots for Dems trend-wise would be the suburbs of Youngstown and Boardman, but the area at large is also losing population quickly
Congressional
Cincinnati proved too Democratic for Republicans to gerrymander, so in 2022, OH-01 flipped back to Democrats for the first time since 2010. Cincinnati Councilman Greg Landsman ran a few points behind Biden's 2020 numbers, but still managed to win the seat by about 5 points, with deep blue Hamilton County outweighing the deep red Warren County that was intended to counteract Hamilton's influence. Landsman is likely to hold this seat for the forseeable future
One of election night 2022's biggest upsets was Democrats holding OH-13. This reconfigured version of Tim Ryan's old seat now takes in all of Summit County, about half of Stark, and a few precincts of Portage. Gilbert was favored to win this seat by most outlets, but Sykes managed to out-perform Biden by about 3 points, winning the seat by 5. She is favored to hold this seat until 2026, upon which Republicans will work to repair their gerrymander, barring any kind of outside influence
Ohio's 14th Congressional district has been relatively non-competitive since the retirement of Democratic Rep. Tom Sawyer in 2003, and the flipping of the seat to Republicans. The seat presently contains all of Ashtabula, Lake, and Geauga counties, and portions of Cuyahoga, Portage, Summit, and Trumbull counties. 2018 saw one of the closest races that the seat has had since then, with Democratic challenger Betsy Rader holding Rep. Joyce within an 11 point margin of victory. She managed to win the Cuyahoga and Summit County portions of the district, while losing Lake, Geauga, Ashtabula, Portage, and Trumbull by decent amounts. To win, Rader would have likely had to win Lake and Ashtabula counties, and increase her margins in Cuyahoga and Summit drastically
Senatorial
While Greg Landsman managed to flip OH-01 by about 5 points, Tim Ryan carried it by a larger margin. Ryan won by almost 7.5 points, against Cincinnati-area native JD Vance, who likely recieved at least a small hometown boost (given that Biden won the seat by a larger margin than both Ryan and Landsman)
Once the most conservative part of the state, the Cincinnati metro has become comparably fertile ground for Democrats. In 2018, Sherrod Brown only lost the region by 2 points. In the following Presidential election, Joe Biden managed to improve on Brown's margins in many parts of the region. If Brown hopes to win re-election, winning the Cincy metro is a must
Hocking County is near Athens, OH, contains Hocking Hills, and is in one of the most ancestrally Democratic regions of the state. Despite this, Sherrod Brown lost the county by about 11 points in his 2018 bid for re-election. He performed best in the eastern area of the county that borders Athens County, the principal city of Logan, and Hocking Hills's precinct
Tuscarawas County is home to New Philadelphia, and sits in the eastern part of the state to the southwest of the Mahoning Valley. While the area used to be fairly Democratic, the last Presidential Democrat to win it was Barack Obama in 2008. Sherrod Brown in 2018 kept it to a 13 point loss, while carrying New Philadelphia. If Brown hopes to win re-election, he'll need to keep his losses here and in the region at large to a minimum
Vinton County sits in Appalachian Eastern Ohio, and went for Trump in 2020 by over 50 points. In 2018, however, Sherrod Brown managed to cut into Republican margins significantly, only losing the county by about 20 points. He improved across the board, flipping the town of Zaleski and Knox Township. He only lost one of the McArthur precincts (the main city) by 8 votes
Other Maps
Portage County used to be pretty reliably Democratic at the federal level. However, Trump won the county in 2016 and 2020 by decent margins. At the countywide level, though, there were Democrats elected alongside Trump both times. Two of these offices that elected Democrats in 2016 were the County Treasurer and the Clerk of the Court of Common Pleas. Cromes won by 5.66 points in the Treasurer race, doing comparatively best in Franklin Township and Ravenna. Fankhauser won by 9.70 points, doing comparatively best in Kent and Streetsboro. Cromes won re-election unopposed in 2020
The 2022 HD 28 was comprised of Cincinnati's northern suburbs, as well as majority African-American Forest Park. While Biden won the seat by double digits, Rep. Miranda held it by just under 5, mainly thanks to the overwhelming Democratic margins from Forest Park and parts of Blue Ash
The 2022 Democratic Gubernatorial primary in Hamilton County was extremely close, but by no means should it have been. Former Cincinnati Mayor John Cranley lost his home county by 36 votes to former Dayton Mayor Nan Whaley. Whaley also won the city of Cincinnati, and a lot of the more liberal/progressive areas of town, whereas Cranley won the more conservative areas in the west
Prior to the maps being struck down, the enacted Ohio HD 40 was entirely within Lucas County, and consisted of the cities/townships of Jerusalem, Oregon, Maumee, Springfield, and parts of Toledo. This was designed to be a seat that Republicans would be able to win down the road, and it only voted for Biden by a point and a half
The 2022 version of SD 7 is one of the classic SW Ohio gerrymanders that combines part of Hamilton County with all of Warren County. Trump won this seat by 15 points, but losing the Hamilton County portion by a similar amount. As the educated corridor along easter Hamilton/western Warren continues to trend blue, however, this seat may eventually end up competitive. In my opinion, this Senate seat should have been comprised of Warren and counties to its east
The old 2022 SD 28 is a district that only makes sense under Ohio's nesting laws. It combines the uber-liberal Akron-based district, the mainly Portage County district, and the Portage/Geauga district. Biden only won the seat by 4.5 points, whereas he would have won a compact Akron-area Senate seat by more. This seat would have likely been a tossup if had had the opportunity to come up for election
The former HD14 contained Parma, Parma Heights, and part of the city of Cleveland, and sits within Cuyahoga County. Biden won the seat by just over 2 points, doing best in the Cleveland portion of the seat and the greater-Parma area adjacent to it. The Democratic nominee in 2022 ran significantly ahead of Biden, winning by about 11 points. The new iteration of the seat has similar boundaries
The Hamilton County portion of the old SD 7 was HD 27. This seat took in a strip of Cincinnati, Anderson Township, and parts of Milford and Loveland. Biden won this seat by 15 points, almost exclusively due to the portion of Cincinnati in the seat. In my opinion, this seat should have been grouped with other Hamilton County-exclusive districts in order to make a competitive seat
The previous version of HD 30 was the most compact, red seat in the Cincinnati area. Biden lost the seat by over 35 points, only winning the city of Cheviot narrowly. Delhi is the largest township in the area, and despite it being home to MSJ, the area is still bright red. The 2024 version of the seat took in more territory to the district's west
The old HD 36 sat in Montgomery County, and takes in part of Dayton and its surrounding cities. Biden won this seat by 6 points, mainly due to the strongly Democratic African American vote in the Dayton proper. This seat started as Lean R for 2022, as the WWC population of the seat is trending rightwards, and Republicans ultimately held it by about 3 points
The *finalized* HD 41 went to Biden by 278 votes. The seat contains Berkey, Sylvania, Oregon, Jerusalem, and the northern portion of Toledo. This seat was won by Trump in 2016, and it was one of the closest races in the Ohio State House in 2022. This seat was redrawn for the 2024 elections, and is almost a safe Democratic pickup
The old HD 52 sat within Lorain County, and contained the cities of Elyria, North Ridgeville, and part of Avon. Hillary Clinton won this seat, but it narrowly flipped to Trump in 2020. Republicans have held this seat/its prior iteration for the last two election cycles, and that's not likely to change going forward. The seat only underwent minor changes in 2024
Ohio's HD 59 was one of the more egregious part of the former state house gerrymander. It takes liberal Youngstown and sticks it with more rural turf in Mahoning and Columbiana counties, instead of its more immediate suburbs. Trump won the seat by just over 4 points. Ironically, Republicans were not able to field a candidate for the seat in 2022, so it will remain de-facto a Democratic hold. It would have been a potential flip in 2024 with presidential partisanship taking hold
The component piece to the former HD 59 gerrymander is HD 58. The district sat entirely within Mahoning County, but is intentionally drawn to be a Republican held seat while meeting compactness guidelines. Trump won this seat by over 6 points, with opposition mainly coming from Campbell, Boardman, and Austintown. Some of my family also lives in the western portion of this seat
The 2022 HD 64 was a narrow Biden seat within Trumbull County, and contains Warren, Girard, Niles, and other cities. While Biden carried it by about 2 points, Republicans narrowly flipped it in 2022, showing how hard the Mahoning Valley is trending to the right. The seat is now even less competitive, as Warren and Girard were split up on the 2024 map
The old HD 94 was the bluest district in Ohio's portion of Appalachia. Sherrod Brown won this seat in 2018 by about 9 points, but Biden lost it by 18 points. It contains all of Athens, Meigs, Noble, and part of Washington counties. Democratic strength came near exclusively from Athens and the immediate surrounding area. With the 2024 round of redistricting, Athens County would be split in half, and any suggestion of competition extinguished